Ukusetha Ithoni Yokuncishiswa Kwezinga likaSepthemba? Inkulumo ka-Powell eNgqungqutheleni ye-Jackson Hole Yeviki Elilandelayo Ivutha Okulindelwe Emakethe!

Ngo-Agasti 23, FederalGcinaUsihlalo uJerome Powell uzokwethula inkulumo eyisihluthulelo ku-Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, umcimbi osephenduke umgogodla ezimakethe zezimali zomhlaba. Njengedili laminyaka yonke lebhange elikhulu, kulindeleke ukuthi libeke ithoni yesinqumo sesilinganiso sikaSepthemba futhi kuzoba isikhathi esibalulekile ekunqumeni inqubomgomo yezimali yesikhathi esizayo.

Izimpande Zomlando zikaJackson Hole
I-Jackson Hole, idolobhana elizungezwe izintaba ezineqhwa, yamukela "ama-pilgrim" omhlaba wezezimali njalo ngo-Agasti. Leli siko laqala ngo-1982 lapho uSihlalo weNhlangano Yenhlangano ngaleso sikhathi uPaul Volcker, umdobi oshisekayo wempukane, ekhetha le ndawo yomhlangano.

UVolcker ubengeyena nje umdobi onekhono kuphela kodwa futhi engumguquli ovelele wenqubomgomo yezimali. Ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali aphezulu, wake wenyusa inzalo yaba ngaphezu kuka-20% ngesikhathi esisodwa, sucLEZIukulawula ngobuqili ukwehla kwamandla emali okudlangile ngokuphathwa okuqinile okulindelwe.

Kusukela lapho, i-Jackson Hole Symposium isibe yinganekwane emhlabeni wezezimali, ngezinqumo eziningi ezinkulu ezifakwe lapha. Ngesikhathi senhlekelele yaseRussia ngo-1998, uSihlalo we-Fed ngaleso sikhathi u-Alan Greenspan wahlangana ngasese nomongameli bezifunda ze-Fed phakathi nengqungquthela, okwaholela ekuncishisweni kwenani eliwujuqu. Ngo-2010, u-Ben Bernanke umemezele ukuzalwa kwe-QE2 lapha, okwashaqisa umhlaba.

I-Powell's Jackson Hole Moment
Ngonyaka odlule, inkulumo ka-Powell eNgqungqutheleni ye-Jackson Hole yabonisa ukuma kwe-hawkish, iqinisekisa kabusha i-2% ehlosiwe yokwehla kwamandla emali futhi ikhombisa ukukhuphuka kwamanani uma kunesidingo.

Nokho, izikhathi zishintshile. Umnotho wamanje ubhekene nokukhula okuhamba kancane, futhi izingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali sezivele zidambile, okuholela emakethe ukuthi ilindele kabanzi i-Fed ukuthi iqale umjikelezo wokunciphisa amanani.

Inkulumo kaPowell kulokhu ingase igxile esimweni somnotho samanje, ukusebenza kwemakethe yezabasebenzi, kanye nombono wokwehla kwamandla emali.

Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthuthuka kwakamuva ekuthengisweni kwezitolo kanye nedatha yezimangalo zokuqala zokungasebenzi, angase anikeze ukuhlolwa okunokulinganisela kokubuka kwezomnotho. Khonamanjalo, imakethe izobe ibheka izinkomba mayelana nezinga lokuncishiswa kwamanani, iqagela ukuthi kuzoba nokusikwa kwamaphuzu angama-50 okungalindelekile.

Ngonyaka odlule, indikimba yenkulumo ka-Powell yayithi “I-Economic Outlook,” egcizelela ukuqhubeka nokuzinza kwenqubomgomo yezimali. Kulo nyaka, angase akhe phezu kwaleso sisekelo, aqhubeke echaza kabanzi mayelana nokuhlolwa kwe-Fed kwesimo somnotho samanje namasu okuphendula.

Umthelela Ongaba khona
Umlando unguthisha ongcono kakhulu. Yonke inkulumo ebalulekile e-Jackson Hole Symposium ihambisane nokuguquguquka okumangazayo kwemakethe. Inkulumo kaBernanke ye-QE2 ngo-2010 yafaka isikhuthazi esiqinile ezimakethe zezimali zomhlaba; ukusikisela kwakhe kwango-2012 kokuthi "QE indefinitely" kuthumele imakethe ngohambo lwe-roller coaster. Inkulumo ka-Powell ka-hawkish ngonyaka odlule nayo yabangela ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwemakethe.

Uma inkulumo ka-Powell kulokhu ikhombisa ukwehliswa kwezinga elicacile, imakethe ingase ikuhumushe njengempendulo yokunciphisa ukukhula komnotho, ngaleyo ndlela ikhulise izimpahla eziyingozi. Kodwa-ke, uma inkulumo incike ku-hawkish, igcizelela izingozi zokwehla kwamandla emali, imakethe ingase ibe nokungabaza mayelana nendlela yenqubomgomo ye-Fed, okuholela ekuguquguqukeni kwamasheya namabhondi.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkulumo ka-Powell ingaba nomthelela ekuqondisweni kwenqubomgomo yezimali yamanye amazwe. Emnothweni wanamuhla ohlangene womhlaba, izinqumo ze-Fed azithinti i-United States kuphela kodwa futhi zinemiphumela efinyelela kude emnothweni womhlaba.