Ukuphahlazeka Kwemakethe! I-Stock Market YaseJapan Ibona Ukwehla Okungokomlando: Kwenzekeni?

Ngomhla zi-5 ku-Agasti, izimakethe zezimali zomhlaba zabona isigameko esishaqisayo: Imakethe yamasheya yase-Japan yehle kakhulu emlandweni wosuku olulodwa. I-Nikkei Index yehle ngo-12.4% ngosuku olulodwa, yasula amaphuzu angu-4,451, ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu kunoMsombuluko Omnyama ngo-1987.

Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa nje zokuhweba, ukwehla okuhlanganisiwe kufinyelele ku-26%. Lokhu kungazelelweI-CRAsh ayizange inyakazise i-Japan kuphela kodwa futhi ibangele ukusabela okulandelanayo ezimakethe zomhlaba. Izimakethe zamasheya zaseNingizimu Korea naseTaiwan nazo zehle ngo-9%, kuyilapho izinkomba ezinkulu zase-US zehle cishe ngo-3%. Ngakho, yini ngempela eyabangela lesi siphepho sezimali?

Inkemba Esika Kabili Yen Carry Trade

Ukuze uqonde ukwehla kwakamuva kwemakethe yamasheya yaseJapane, umuntu kufanele aqale aqonde uhwebo lwe-yen.

Isikhathi eside, ngenxa yezilinganiso zenzalo ye-yen ephansi kakhulu, abatshalizimali bomhlaba wonke baboleka amanani amakhulu e-yen futhi bawaguqulele emalini ekhiqiza kakhulu ukuze bathole umehluko wesilinganiso senzalo.

Kodwa-ke, lokhu kuhweba kwe-arbitrage okubonakala kungenabungozi kufihla ubungozi obubalulekile. Lapho umehluko wenzalo phakathi kwe-yen nedola ushintsha, le modeli ye-arbitrage ingawa ngokushesha. NgoMashi walo nyaka, iBhange LaseJapan laqalisa ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokuqala eminyakeni eyi-17, laqeda inqubomgomo yezinga lenzalo engemihle.

Ngomhla zingama-31 kuJulayi, iJapan iphinde yanyusa amanani, kanti ngasikhathi sinye, ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US kwehlile, okuholele ekutheni imakethe ilindele kabanzi iFederal.Gcinaukunciphisa amanani ngoSepthemba.

Lolu chungechunge lwezenzo luholele ngokuqondile ekuncipheni komehluko wesilinganiso senzalo phakathi kwe-yen nedola, kulimaza isisekelo sohwebo lwe-yen. Abatshalizimali baqala ukuthenga amanani amakhulu e-yen emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe ukuze babuyisele imali yabo ye-yen, okwenza i-yen ikhuphuke ngo-12% uma iqhathaniswa nedola ngenyanga eyodwa.

I-Buffett Effect

Kulesi sivunguvungu sezimali, abatshalizimali bamazwe ngamazwe, kuhlanganise noWarren Buffett, babambe iqhaza ekwandiseni isimo. Ngesikhathi sobhubhane lwango-2020, uBuffett waqala ukutshala imali emakethe yamasheya yaseJapan, ethenga uchungechunge lwamasheya anenzuzo ephezulu. Ngo-2023, u-Buffett waphinde wenyusa utshalomali lwakhe emakethe yamasheya yaseJapane, okwabangela ukudideka kwabatshalizimali emhlabeni wonke ngezitoko zaseJapane.

Ngo-2023, inani elithengiwe ngabatshalizimali baphesheya kwezilwandle emakethe yamasheya yaseJapan ladlula ama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezi-3, okwenza i-Nikkei 225 Index yenyuke ngo-28% kungakapheli unyaka. NgoMashi 2024, inkomba yayisidabule umgoqo wamaphuzu angama-40,000, nokwenyuka cishe ngama-80%.

Naphezu kokuba umnotho waseJapane ungakalulami ngokugcwele, imakethe yamasheya yaseJapane ifinyelele izinga eliphezulu lomlando, eliqhutshwa kakhulu abatshalizimali bamazwe ngamazwe.

Kodwa-ke, njengoba izinga le-yen likhuphuka kanye nokwehliswa kwezinga okulindelekile e-US kuhlangana ngesikhathi esingokomlando, laba batshalizimali bamazwe ngamazwe baqala ukuthengisa kakhulu amasheya ase-Japanese, okwabangela ukungqubuzana kwezimakethe. Ezimakethe eziwohlokayo ngokushesha, ukutshalwa kwezimali okuningi okuxhasiwe kwaphoqeleka ukuthi kuqedwe, okuholele ekwehleni okushesha kakhulu kanye nochungechunge lwemiphumela ewohlokayo. Ngakho, kwavela inhlekelele engokomlando emakethe yamasheya yaseJapane.

Ikusasa Outlook

Ngemva kwengozi, iPhini LoMbusi Webhange LaseJapan u-Shinichi Uchida lathi ngokushesha, "Ngeke sinyuse amanani ngaphansi kwezimo zemakethe yezezimali ezingazinzile." Nakuba lesi sitatimende sinikeze impumuzo yesikhashana emakethe, ukulindela isikhathi eside kokwenyuswa kwezinga okwenziwa yiBhange LaseJapan kubonakala kungenakuhlehliswa.

Khonamanjalo, idatha yakamuva evela eMnyangweni Wezabasebenzi wase-US ibonise ukwehla okukhulu kwezimangalo zokuqala zokungasebenzi, ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu onyakeni, okubonisa ukuba ngcono emakethe yemisebenzi. Le datha ihluke kakhulu kweyeviki eledlule, equbule izingxoxo mayelana nokwehla kwamandla omnotho e-US.

Uma kubhekwa imakethe yamabhondi, lokhu kuholele ekwehleni okukhulu okulandelwa ukuphindaphindeka kwesivuno esingaphezu kuka-4%.

Kodwa-ke, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukulindela kwemakethe ukuncishiswa kwezinga le-Federal Reserve kuya kuba namandla. Amathuba okwehliswa kwamaphuzu angama-50 ngoSepthemba anyuke esuka ku-22% ngesonto eledlule aya ku-56.5% muva nje. Ngaphezulu kwama-70% emakethe akholelwa ukuthi kunethuba elingaphezu kuka-78% lokwehliswa kwenani eliphelele libe ngaphezu kwamaphuzu ayi-100 kulo nyaka.

Ukuthambekela kokuncishiswa kwezinga lase-US kubonakala kungenakugwenywa, cishe kuqinisekisa ukuthi ukukhula kwemakethe yamasheya yase-Japan sekuphelile. Ukuthi izinto zizothuthuka kanjani ngokulandelayo kusazobonakala.

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