Izindaba Zemboni
Enye i-Twist! Ukukhula Kwe-GDP Kudlula Okulindelekile, Ingabe Isilinganiso Esinqunyiwe Sisesetafuleni?
Inkomba yentengo ye-PCE yekota-over-quarter yaminyaka yonke ye-Q2 ingene ku-2.9%, idlula i-2.7% elindelwe, kodwa iphansi kunenani langaphambilini le-3.7%.
Ngemuva kokukhishwa kwedatha, isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 soMgcinimafa sikhuphuke kafushane ngaphambi kokuhlehla kancane, kanti isivuno sakamuva sisalokhu sihamba cishe ku-4.2%.
Abashayeli Bokukhula KweGDP
Ukuyihlahlela phansi, abahlanganyeli abayinhloko ekukhuleni kwe-Q2 GDP kwakuyizindleko zabathengi, i-inventory yangaseseutshalomali, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okugxilile okungezona zokuhlala.
Ukutshalwa kwezimali kohlu lwangasese ngokuvamile kubhekisela esitokweni sezimpahla eziphethwe amabhizinisi ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo zokukhiqiza nezokuthengisa, okuhlanganisa izinto ezingavuthiwe, umsebenzi osaqhubekayo, kanye nezimpahla eziqediwe.
Ukutshalwa kwezimali okugxilile okungekona okokuhlala ngokuvamile kubhekisela ekutshalweni kwezimali ezimpahleni ezingashintshi ngezinjongo okungezona ezokuhlala, njengezindlu ezithengiswayo, izakhiwo zamahhovisi, izimboni, njll.
Phakathi kwalokhu, ukusetshenziswa komuntu siqu kube nomthelela obaluleke kakhulu ku-GDP, ekhule ngo-1.57%, okuwukunyuka okuphawulekayo ukusuka ku-0.98% yekota edlule.
Igalelo lokukhula kwempahla yangasese liphinde lakhuphuka kakhulu, lisuka ku--0.42% ku-Q1 laya ku-0.82%. Igalelo likaHulumeni ku-GDP ngokufanayo likhuphuke lisuka ku-0.31% laya ku-0.53%.
Idatha yamanje yezomnotho iphakamisa ukuthi i-US isendleleni yokufinyelela "ekufikeni kancane"—ukukhula komnotho okuzinzile kuyilapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphola kancane kancane. Lokhu okulindelekile kunomthelela omuhleLEZIukuzethemba kwemakethe.
Ingabe Ukuncishiswa Kwesilinganiso Kusengenzeka?
Naphezu kokukhula komnotho okungcono kunalokho obekulindelwe, ukulindela ukuncishiswa kwezinga akukahlehli. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-CME Group, ukuncishiswa kwezinga ngoSepthemba cishe kuqinisekile, okungenzeka kube ngu-100%. Amathuba okungenani okuncishiswa kwamanani amathathu kulo nyaka nawo afinyelele cishe ku-60%.
Ngokuphawulekayo, umhlangano wenqubomgomo we-Federal Reserve ngoJulayi 30 uzoba nomthelela omkhulu emakethe, futhi njengedatha yakamuva, kukhona ithuba elingu-6.7% lokuthi i-Fed izomemezela ukuncishiswa kwezinga emhlanganweni kaJulayi.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi owayengumongameli we-New York Fed uWilliam Dudley usanda kushintsha isimo sakhe sangaphambilini, ephakamisa ukuthi i-Fed inganciphisa amanani emhlanganweni kaJulayi.
Umlandeli wakhe eGoldman Sachs, uJan Hatzius, naye wabuza embikweni odlule, "Kungani ulinde kuze kube uSepthemba?" Izitatimende ezinjalo zomphakathi ezivela kubantu abavelele zibonakala zidala umuzwa wokuphuthuma ukuthi i-Fed yehlise amanani.
Ngaphezu komhlangano wenqubomgomo ozayo, i-Jackson Hole Symposium ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti nayo kufanele ibukwe.
USihlalo we-Fed uJerome Powell kungenzeka abonise ushintsho ekulawuleni ubungozi kulo mhlangano, ofana nonyaka odlule, ngokunokwenzeka anikeze uhlaka lokuhlola ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nokuguquguquka kokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokucabangela umthelela wenqubomgomo yezimali emnothweni wangempela. Lokhu kungase kusebenze "njengokwesekwa okungokomcabango" ekuncishisweni kwezinga ngoSepthemba futhi kunikeze ibhentshimakhi yokusetshenziswa kwenqubomgomo yesikhathi esimaphakathi onyakeni olandelayo, mhlawumbe ngokuhlaziywa kwesimo noma imikhawulo yedatha.
Kusukela i-Federal Reserve imemezele ukwenyuka kwamaphuzu angama-25 enani lenzalo elinganiselwe ngoMashi 17, 2022, umjikelezo oqhubekayo wokwenyuka kwezinga usuthathe iminyaka emibili futhi usuzophela. Sizoqhubeka nokuqapha intuthuko yesikhathi esizayo eduze.