Umthombo wesithombe: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

Njengoba imakethe ngokuvamile yayicabange ngaphambi komhlangano ukuthi i-Fed izophinde inyuse amanani ngamaphoyinti angu-75 kule nyanga, ukugxila okuyinhloko kwemakethe kwakuseqenjini lamachashazi kanye nombono wezomnotho oshicilelwe ngemva komhlangano.

Isakhiwo samachashazi, ukumelwa okubonakalayo kwakho konke okulindelekile kwesilinganiso senzalo sabenzi bomgomo be-Fed eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, kwethulwa eshadini;ukuxhumanisa okuvundlile kwaleli shadi unyaka, ukuhlanganisa okume mpo yinani lenzalo, futhi ichashazi ngalinye eshadini limelela okulindelekile komenzi wenqubomgomo.

Umthombo wesithombe: Federal Reserve

Njengoba kuboniswe eshadini, iningi (17) labenzi benqubomgomo be-Fed abangu-19 bakholelwa ukuthi izilinganiso zenzalo zizoba ngu-4.00% -4.5% ngemva kokwenyuka kwezinga kabili kulo nyaka.

Ngakho-ke njengamanje kunezimo ezimbili zokukhuphuka kwezinga okubili okusele ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka.

Ukunyuka kwezinga le-bps engu-100 ekupheleni konyaka, ukunyuka okubili kwama-bps angu-50 lilinye (abenzi benqubomgomo abayisi-8 bavuna).

Kusele imihlangano emibili ukuze kukhushulwe amanani ngo-125 bps, 75 bps ngoNovemba kanye nama-bps angama-50 ngoDisemba (abenzi bezinqubomgomo bavuna).

Uma sibheka futhi ekunyukeni kwezinga okulindelekile ngo-2023, iningi lamavoti lihlukaniswe ngokulinganayo phakathi kuka-4.25% no-5%.

Lokhu kusho ukuthi isilinganiso senzalo esimaphakathi sonyaka ozayo singu-4.5% kuya ku-4.75%.Uma inzalo inyuselwa ku-4.25% emihlanganweni emibili esele kulo nyaka, lokhu kusho ukuthi kuzoba nokwenyuka kwamaphuzu angama-25 kuphela ngonyaka ozayo.

Ngakho-ke, ngokuvumelana nokulindelwe kwalesi sakhiwo samachashazi, ngeke sibe khona indawo enkulu yokuthi i-Fed inyuse amanani ngonyaka ozayo.

Futhi mayelana nokulindelwe kwezinga lenzalo lango-2024, kusobala ukuthi imibono yabakhi benqubomgomo iqhelelene kakhulu futhi ayihlobene kakhulu nesimanje.

Okuqinisekile, nokho, ukuthi umjikelezo wokuqinisa we-Fed uzoqhubeka - ngokukhuphuka kwezinga elinamandla.

 

Ngokuqina kwakho manje, ukuqina kwakho kuba mfushane

 

I-Wall Street ikholelwa ukuthi inhloso ye-Fed ukudala umjikelezo wokuqinisa "oqinile, omfushane" ozogcina ubambezele ukukhula komnotho ukuze kubuyiselwe ukupholisa ukwehla kwamandla emali.

Umbono we-Fed ngekusasa lomnotho, omenyezelwe kulo mhlangano, usekela le ncazelo.

Ngokombono wayo wezomnotho, i-Fed yabuyekeza isibikezelo sayo se-GDP yangempela ngo-2022 yehla kakhulu yaya ku-0.2% isuka ku-1.7% ngoJuni, yaphinde yabuyekeza ukukhuphuka kwesibikezelo sayo sezinga lonyaka lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi.

Umthombo wesithombe: Federal Reserve

Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi i-Federal Reserve isiqalile ukukhathazeka ngokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi umnotho ungena emjikelezweni wokuwohloka komnotho, njengoba izibikezelo zezomnotho nezokuqashwa ziya ngokuya zingenathemba.

Ngaso leso sikhathi, uPowell naye washo ngokungagwegwesi esithangamini sabezindaba sangemva komhlangano, ”Njengoba kukhuphuka izinga elinolaka, amathuba okufika endaweni ethambile kungenzeka anciphe.

I-Fed iphinde ivume ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani okunolaka kungenzeka kakhulu kuholele ekuwohlokeni komnotho kanye negazi ezimakethe.

Ngale ndlela, noma kunjalo, i-Fed ingaqedela umsebenzi "wokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali" ngaphambi kwesikhathi, futhi umjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga uzophela.

Sekukonke, umjikelezo wamanje wokukhuphuka kwezinga kungenzeka ube isenzo "esinzima futhi esisheshayo".

 

Ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo kungase kuqedwe ngaphambi kwesikhathi esimisiwe

Kusukela kulo nyaka, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokuqoqwa yi-Fed sekufinyelele ku-300bp, kuhlanganiswe nesakhiwo sechashazi ukuze sibone inqubo yokwenyuka kwezinga izoqhubeka isikhathi esithile, ukuma kwenqubomgomo esikhathini esifushane futhi ngeke kushintshe.

Lokhu kwayichitha ngokuphelele imicabango yemakethe yokuthi i-Fed izohamba ngokushesha ukuze ikhululeke, futhi kusukela manje, isivuno seminyaka eyishumi yamabhondi ase-US sidubule yonke indlela, futhi isizofinyelela phezulu ku-3.7%.

Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Federal Reserve ekubikezelweni kwezomnotho mayelana nokukhathazeka komnotho, kanye nesiqephu sechashazi sokukhuphuka kwesilinganiso senzalo ngonyaka ozayo kulindeleke ukuthi sinciphise, okusho ukuthi inqubo yokukhulisa inzalo, nakuba namanje kuyaqhubeka, kodwa sekuvele ukuntwela kokusa.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunomphumela we-lag kunqubomgomo yokwenyuka kwezinga le-Fed, okungakagaywa ngokugcwele umnotho, futhi nakuba ukunyuka kwezinga elilandelayo kuzoba budedengu, izindaba ezinhle ukuthi zingase ziqedwe ngokushesha.

 

Ngemakethe ye-mortgage, akungabazeki ukuthi amanani enzalo azohlala ephezulu esikhathini esifushane, kodwa mhlawumbe i-tide izoshintsha ngonyaka ozayo.