I-CPI Ibonisa Ukupholisa Okuphelele

NgoLwesine, Julayi 11, uMnyango Wezabasebenzi ukhiphe imininingwane ekhombisa ukuthi izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka le-CPI lehle lisuka ku-3.3% ngoMeyi laya ku-3%, ngaphansi kwenani elilindelekile elingu-3.1%. Leli izinga lokukhula eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngoJuni wonyaka odlule futhi liphawula ukwehla kokuqala okungekuhle kwenyanga nenyanga kusukela ngoMeyi 2020, nokwehla ngo-0.1%.

I-CPI ewumgogodla ikhule ngo-3.3% unyaka nonyaka, ngaphansi kuka-3.4%. Ukukhula kwenyanga nenyanga kube ngu-0.1%, okuwukukhula okuncane kakhulu kusukela ngo-Agasti 2021. Lokhu kwehla okungalindelekile kwedatha ngokungangabazeki kufake umthamo oqinile wokuzethemba emakethe, okubonisa ukupholisa okuphelele kwamandla emali.

Ngokucacile, kokubili amanani entengo yezimpahla nezinsizakalo ehle unyaka nonyaka, nezintengo zezimpahla ezibonisa ukwehla okusha kusukela ngo-2020, zehle ngo-1.8% unyaka nonyaka.

Ngokuphawulekayo, ukwehla kwamandla emali kwezindlu ngaphakathi kwe-CPI eyinhloko nakho kusheshisa ukwehla kwakho.

Unyaka nonyaka, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ezindlu ngoJuni lehle laya ku-5.16%, lehla lisuka ku-5.41% ngoMeyi, okumaka izinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngoMeyi 2022. Ukwehla kwamandla emali erenti kukhuphuke ngo-5.07% unyaka nonyaka, kwehle kusuka ku-5.30% ngoMeyi, okuphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2022.

Inani Linciphisa Okungenayo?

Ngemva kokukhishwa kwedatha, isivuno soMgcinimafa siyehla. Isivuno sakamuva seminyaka eyi-10 sikaMgcinimafa sehle cishe ezinyangeni ezintathu.

Idola negolide nakho kubonise ukusabela okuhambisanayo. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokulungiswa kwemakethe, ama-tech tech asanda kuqina aseMelika afana ne-Nvidia, i-Apple, ne-Microsoft yehle kakhulu. Ngokuphambene, amasheya ahlala emile ama-caps amancane abone ukwanda okuphindiselayo, inkomba ye-Russell 2000 yeqa ngo-3.6% ngosuku olulodwa. Ngaleso sikhathi, inkomba ye-Nasdaq eyayikhuphuka phambilini yehle ngo-2%, futhi inkomba ye-S&P 500 yehle ngo-1.4%.

Idatha ibonisa ukuthi ukusebenza kwalolu suku kumake igebe elikhulu lokusebenza losuku olulodwa phakathi kwenkomba kaRussell 2000 kanye ne-Nasdaq kusukela ngo-1986.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imakethe inyuse amathuba e-Federal Reserve cutting rates aqala ngoSepthemba ukusuka cishe ku-70% ngaphambi kokukhishwa kwedatha kuya ngaphezu kwama-90%. Bangu-7.3% kuphela abakholelwa ukuthi ngeke kwehliswe amanani.

Ukwengeza, imakethe ilindele ukuncishiswa kwesilinganiso okungu-2-3 unyaka wonke, ngamathuba angu-46.6% okuncishiswa kwamanani amathathu.

Osomnotho kanye nezingqapheli zemakethe nabo bazwakalise ukuzethemba ekuncishisweni kwamazinga e-Fed, njengoba i-JPMorgan ihambisa umugqa wesikhathi olindelekile wokunciphisa amanani kusukela ngoNovemba kuya kuSepthemba. Phakathi kwekhorasi yokuncishiswa kwezinga okulindelekile, kubonakala kuyindaba yesikhathi kuphela.

Trump njenge-X-Factor?

Nokho, ukungaqiniseki kwezombusazwe kungenza kube nzima ukufika kokwehliswa kwamanani.

Imibiko ikhomba ukuthi uma i-Fed ikhetha ukwehlisa amanani ngoSepthemba, kungathathwa njengokuvuna uMengameli osesikhundleni uBiden. Uma uTrump ewina ukhetho ngoNovemba, kungase kubangele ukuziphindiselela kwezombusazwe.

Nakuba uPowell aqale waqokwa njengoSihlalo weFed nguTrump futhi evame ukuchazwa njengelungu leRiphabhulikhi elibhalisiwe, uTrump usabheka izinqumo zikaPowell njengezihlobene nepolitiki. AmaRepublican Republicans nawo axwayise uPowell ngokuncishiswa kwamanani ngaphambi kokhetho lwangoNovemba. USihlalo weKomidi le-House Financial Services uHenry uthe, "Wonke umuntu ufuna ukuncishiswa kwenani ... kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi ukwehliswa kukaSepthemba kuzobonakala njengepolitiki."

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-Congressional Republicans axwayise uPowell ngokunciphisa amanani ngaphambi kokhetho, funa kubonakale njengesenzo sezepolitiki. USihlalo we-Fed u-Powell ugcizelela ukuthi izinqumo zizosekelwe ngokuqinile kudatha kanye nombono wezomnotho, hhayi izici zezepolitiki.