05/31/2024

Ukwehla Kwezomnotho, Ukwehla kwamandla emali

Ngokwemininingwane ebuyekeziwe ekhishwe uMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US ngoMeyi 30, izinga lokukhula kwekota ngekota le-GDP yangempela yase-US ngekota yokuqala ka-2024 lalingu-1.3%, lehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.3 kusukela esilinganisweni sokuqala sika-1.6% futhi lahamba kancane kakhulu kunokukhula okungu-3.4% kwikota yesine yonyaka odlule.

Lokhu kulungiswa kube ngokuyinhloko ngenxa yezindleko zokusetshenziswa komuntu siqu (PCE) eziwela ngaphansi kokulindelwe. Ukukhula kwekota yonyaka kwe-PCE engxenyeni yokuqala kwakuyi-2%, phansi ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 kusukela ekulinganisweni kokuqala kwe-2.5% nangaphansi kokulindelwe kwemakethe ye-2.2%.

Ngaphambili kwe-inflation, inkomba yentengo ye-PCE ikhule ngo-3.3% ngekota yonyaka ngekota yokuqala, kancane ngaphansi kwesibikezelo sokuqala. Inkomba yentengo ye-PCE eyinhloko ikhuphuke ngo-3.6%, yehla ngamaphesenti angu-0.1 kusukela ekulinganisweni kokuqala kwe-3.7%, futhi iphakeme kakhulu kunokukhula kwe-2% engxenyeni yesine yonyaka odlule. Nakuba lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali isekhona, kukhombisa nokuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kusendleleni yokulinganisa.

Isizathu esiyinhloko sokwehla kokukhula kwe-GDP yangempela ngekota yokuqala kwaba ubuthakathaka obuphawulekayo ekusetshenzisweni kwempahla, ikakhulukazi ezimotweni, lapho idatha yokuchithwa kwabathengi ibuyekezwa phansi. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso sokuqala, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni nakho kwehlile. Kodwa-ke, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezindawo zokuhlala kanye nokuthengwa kwamanye amazwe kubonise ukusimama okuthile.

I-GDP Ilindeleke Ukuphindaphindeka ku-Q2

Naphezu kokwehla kokukhula komnotho ngekota yokuqala, izibikezelo zakamuva ziphakamisa ukuthi izinga lokukhula kwekota yesibili lingafinyelela ku-3% noma ngaphezulu, okubonisa ukusimama komnotho kwesikhashana esifushane. Nokho, ukusimama namandla alokhu kuthola kabusha akuqinisekile.

Abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi noma ngabe i-GDP iphinda ibuyele engxenyeni yesibili, umnotho wase-US cishe ngeke ubonise umfutho oqinile engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.

Abathengi kufanele bacwile ekongeni kwabo ukuze balondoloze amazinga amanje okusebenzisa imali, futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo kuqeda amandla abo okuthenga. Ukwengeza, ukhetho lukamongameli oluzayo lungase luholele amabhizinisi ukuthi asebenzise indlela eqaphile ekusetshenzisweni kwemali nasekutshaleni imali.

Okulindelwe yimakethe yemali yezinga lokuncishiswa yi-Federal Reserve phakathi nonyaka kwehle kakhulu. Ukubheja kwemakethe ekuncishisweni kwesilinganiso sokuqala kususelwe kusukela ngoSepthemba obekulindeleke phambilini kuya kuNovemba. Amathuba okwehliswa kwezinga ngoSepthemba nawo ehlile esuka cishe ku-70% aya cishe ku-50%.

Ukungezwani Ngokuphathelene Nesikhathi Sokuncishiswa Kwezilinganiso Kuyanda

Amaminithi omhlangano wenqubomgomo ye-Federal Reserve akhombisa ukuthi iningi labahlanganyeli likholelwa ukuthi kukhona ukungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo mayelana nokwehla kwamandla emali futhi bavumelana ngazwi linye ukuthi idatha yakamuva ayizange ikhulise ukuzethemba kwabo ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali okubuyela emuva ku-2%. Lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi i-Fed isabheka ukwehla kwamandla emali njengento eyinhloko ezinqumweni zayo zenqubomgomo yezimali.

Nokho, bakhona abanethemba lokuhle phakathi kwabo. UMbusi We-Federal Reserve uChristopher Waller unethemba lokwehla kwamandla emali, ethi asikho isidingo sokukhushulwa kwamanani okwengeziwe futhi usekela ukuncishiswa kwamanani kusenesikhathi.

Enkulumweni yakhe e-Peterson Institute for International Economics ngoMeyi 21, uWaller uthe idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali ka-April iphakamisa ukuthi inqubekelaphambili ebheke ku-2% okuhloswe ngayo kungenzeka iqale kabusha, okubonisa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US akukakhuphuki nokuthi ukunyuka kwamanani akudingekile.

U-Waller ugxile kakhulu ku-PMI engakhiqizi. Idatha yakamuva ikhombisa ukuthi i-PMI engakhiqizi, enesabelo esikhulu kunazo zonke somkhiqizo, yehle ngaphansi kwama-50, yashaya iphuzu eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngoDisemba 2022, okubonisa ukwehla komsebenzi wezomnotho.

Uthe uma lezi zindlela zedatha ziqhubeka, kuzosho ukuthi umsebenzi wezomnotho ngaphandle kokukhiqiza uyahamba kancane. Uma le datha iqhubeka nokuthamba phakathi nezinyanga ezi-3-5 ezizayo, i-Fed kungase kudingeke ukuthi iqalise ukuncishiswa kwezinga.

Ngokuphambene, uMbusi weFederal Reserve uMichelle Bowman ulindele ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US kuhlale kuphezulu isikhathi eside futhi waphinda wathi ukukhuphuka kwamanani okwengeziwe kungenzeka uma kunesidingo.

"Uma imininingwane ezayo ikhombisa ukuthi inqubekelaphambili ekulweni nokwehla kwamandla emali imile noma ihlehlile, ngisazimisele ukukhuphula izinga elihlosiwe lezinga lezimali zikahulumeni emihlanganweni ezayo," esho.

Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS; ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume. Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe. Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye. Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile. Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.