12/30/2022

Ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyaqhubeka kuphola!

“Ukwehla kwamandla emali” igama elingukhiye elibaluleke kakhulu emnothweni wase-US ngo-2022.

 

I-Consumer Price Index (CPI) inyukile engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, njengoba amanani enyuka ngobuningi, kusukela kuphethroli kuya enyameni, amaqanda, nobisi nokunye okuyisisekelo.

Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, njengoba i-US Federal Reserve iqhubeka nokukhuphula izinga lenzalo kanye nezinkinga ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni kancane kancane zathuthuka, ukwanda kwe-CPI inyanga nenyanga kwehle kancane kancane, kodwa ukukhula konyaka kusalokhu kukhuphuka. okusobala, ikakhulukazi izinga eliyisisekelo le-CPI lihlala liphezulu, okwenza abantu bakhathazeke ngokuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kungase kuhlale amazinga aphezulu isikhathi eside.

Kodwa-ke, ukwehla kwamandla emali kwakamuva kubonakala sengathi kumemezele "izindaba ezinhle" eziningi, indlela ye-CPI enqabile iba sobala futhi icace.

 

Ukulandela ukukhula kwe-CPI okuhamba kancane kunalokho obekulindelwe ngoNovemba kanye nezinga lokukhula eliphansi kakhulu lonyaka, inkomba yokwehla kwamandla emali ethandwa kakhulu yi-Fed, inkomba eyinhloko yezindleko zokusetshenziswa komuntu siqu (PCE) ngaphandle kokudla namandla, yehla ngenyanga yesibili ilandelana.

Ukwengeza, inhlolovo yeNyuvesi yaseMichigan yokulindela ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo yabathengi ngonyaka ozayo yehle ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe yaba ngaphansi okusha kusukela ngoJuni odlule.

Njengoba ubona, idatha yakamuva ibonisa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US kwehlile ngempela, kodwa ingabe lesi siginali sizohlala futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzoziphatha kanjani ngo-2023?

 

The Great Inflation 2022 Isifinyezo

Kuze kube manje kulo nyaka, i-United States iye yabhekana nohlobo lwe-hyperinflation eyenzeka kanye kuphela emashumini amane eminyaka, futhi ubukhulu nobude besikhathi salokhu kwehla kwamandla emali okukhulu kuyizinga ngokomlando.

(a) Naphezu kokwenyuka kwezinga eliqinile le-Fed, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyaqhubeka kudlula okulindelwe emakethe - i-CPI ifinyelele izinga eliphezulu le-9.1% unyaka nonyaka ngo-June futhi liye laphuza ukwehla.

I-Core inflation CPI ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-6.6% ngoSepthemba ngaphambi kokuba yehle kancane yaya ku-6.0% ngoNovemba, isengaphezu kakhulu kwethagethi ye-Federal Reserve yokwehla kwamandla emali ngo-2%.

Buyekeza izimbangela ze-hyperinflation yamanje, ebangelwa ikakhulukazi inhlanganisela yesidingo esinamandla nokushoda kwempahla.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni zokugqugquzela imali ngendlela emangalisayo kusukela kwalolu bhubhane ziye zabhebhethekisa isidingo esinamandla sabathengi emphakathini.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukushoda kwabasebenzi nokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kwangemva kobhubhane kanye nomthelela wezingxabano zezwe kuye kwaholela ekwenyukeni kwamanani entengo yezimpahla nemisebenzi, okuye kwabhengezwa nakakhulu ukuqina kancane kancane kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla.

Ukwakhiwa kwezigatshana ze-CPI: amandla, irenti, amaholo "imililo emithathu" yokulandelana kokukhuphuka ndawonye kumkhuhlane wokwehla kwamandla emali akupheli.

 

Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ikakhulukazi ukwenyuka kwentengo kwamandla nempahla okuhole i-CPI yokwehla kwamandla emali, kanti engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukwehla kwamandla emali ezinsizeni ezifana nerenti namaholo bekubusa ukwenyuka kokwehla kwamandla emali.

 

2023 Izizathu ezintathu ezibalulekile zizohlehlisa ukwehla kwamandla emali

Njengamanje, zonke izinkomba zithi ukwehla kwamandla emali kunyuke kakhulu, futhi izici ezikhuphula izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ngo-2022 zizoba buthaka kancane kancane, futhi i-CPI izokhombisa ukwehla ngo-2023.

Okokuqala, izinga lokukhula lokusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi (PCE) lizoqhubeka lihamba kancane.

Izindleko zokusetshenziswa komuntu siqu ezimpahleni manje zehle inyanga nenyanga amakota amabili elandelana, okuzoba yisici esiyinhloko esibangela ukwehla kwamandla emali esikhathini esizayo.

Ngokumelene nokwasemuva kwezindleko zokuboleka ezikhuphukayo ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo ye-Fed, kungase kube nokwehla okwengeziwe kokusetshenziswa komuntu siqu.

 

Okwesibili, ukunikezwa kancane kancane kwalulama.

Imininingwane evela ku-New York Fed ikhombisa ukuthi iGlobal Supply Chain Stress Index iqhubekile nokwehla kusukela ngo-2021, ikhomba ukwehla okwengeziwe kwezintengo zempahla.

Okwesithathu, ukwenyuka kwerenti kuqale uguquko.

Ukwenyuka kwamazinga abukhali okulandelanayo okwenziwa yi-Federal Reserve ngo-2022 kwabangela ukuba amanani emali ebolekwayo eqe kanye nezintengo zezindlu zehle, okuphinde kwehlise amarenti, inkomba yerenti manje yehle izinyanga ezimbalwa zilandelana.

Ngokomlando, irenti ivamise ukuthrenda cishe ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ngaphambi kwerenti yezindawo zokuhlala e-CPI, ngakho-ke kuzolandela ukwehla okunye ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyisihloko, okuholwa ukwehla kwerenti.

Ngokusekelwe kulezi zici ezingenhla, izinga lonyaka lokukhula kwamandla emali kulindeleke ukuthi lehle ngokushesha engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ozayo.

Ngokwesibikezelo seGoldman Sachs, i-CPI izokwehla kancane ibe ngaphansi kuka-6% kwikota yokuqala bese ishesha ngekota yesibili neyesithathu.

 

Futhi ekupheleni kuka-2023, i-CPI cishe izowela ngaphansi kuka-3%.

Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.