Ingabe inani lemali ebolekiwe lizoletha ukusa ngaphansi kweshidi lebhalansi elinciphayo?
04/23/2022
I-Fed iveze emizuzwini yayo yakamuva ukuthi izoqala ngokusemthethweni ukunciphisa ibhalansi yayo ngoMeyi, futhi yabikezela ukuthi ingase ibe enkulu kunawo wonke.Ngemuva kokuthi i-Federal Reserve iqale umjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo, uhlelo lokunciphisa ishidi lebhalansi nalo selifakwe ku-ajenda.Abanye ababoleki bangase bazizwe beyinqaba “ngokuncipha kwe-balance sheet” kungazelelwe.Ngenkathi kuqubuka i-COVID-19 ngo-2020, iFederal Reserve yaqala ukuthenga amanani amakhulu amabhondi emakethe, ngenhloso yokukhuthaza umnotho ngokufaka imali emakethe.Le nqubo yaziwa njengenqubomgomo ye-QE (Quantitative Easing).Umphumela oqondile kakhulu wenqubomgomo ye-QE ukwehla kwezinga lenzalo kanye nokwenyuka kwemali yemakethe.Ngenqubomgomo ye-QE, umgomo omkhulu we-Fed ukwehlisa izinga lenzalo ngokungeza imali emakethe, ngaleyo ndlela kufezwe inhloso yokugqugquzela umnotho.Eminyakeni emibili edlule, ukunyuka kwemakethe yamasheya nezintengo zezindlu, kanye nezinga lenzalo ephansi yemali ebolekiwe konke kubangelwa inqubomgomo ye-QE.
I-Shrinking Balance Sheet ingabonakala njengokusebenza okuhlanekezelwe kwenqubomgomo ye-QE, Inhloso yayo eqondile ukunciphisa inani lezinhlangothi zombili zebhalansi ngesikhathi esisodwa, ukuze kufezwe injongo yokunciphisa ukujikeleza kwemali, okuyinto futhi iletha umphumela ophambene wenqubomgomo ye-QE.Umthelela oseceleni wenqubomgomo ye-QE uvame ukukhuphuka kwamandla emali, futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwamanje “kuphezulu”, ngakho-ke ngemva kokuba i-Fed iqale ukunyusa izinga lenzalo, kufanele ivuthe bese iqala i-Shrinking Balance Sheet, ukuze “ibhuleki kabili” ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Lo mzuliswano uzokwenziwa ngayiphi indlela Ibhalansi Enciphayo kwenziwe?
Kunezindlela ezintathu eziyinhloko zokunciphisa usayizi wokuthengwa kwebhondi;ukudayisa amabhondi ngqo;kanye nokuvumela izimpahla ukuthi zisetshenziswe ngokuzenzakalelayo ekuvuthweni (ukuhlengwa), okungukuthi, ukumisa ukutshalwa kabusha lapho usuvuthwa.
Zontathu lezi zindlela zingasetshenziswa ukunciphisa usayizi we-balance sheet, ukunciphisa inani lemali esakazwayo ukuze kukhushulwe amanani enzalo, nokulawula ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Amaminithi omhlangano wakamuva wenqubomgomo yezimali okhishwe yi-Federal Reserve abonisa ukuthi ukuze kuliwe nokukhuphuka kwamandla emali, abenzi bezinqubomgomo "bavumelana ngokujwayelekile" ukunciphisa ukubamba kwempahla ye-Fed kuze kufike ku-$ 95 billion ngenyanga.
Amaminithi aphinde ashiwo "ngokuyinhloko ngokutshalwa kabusha kukathishanhloko okutholwe ezibambiso ze-SOMA," okusho ukuthi lo mjikelezo wokuncipha uzokuba "ungenzi lutho," esikhundleni sokuthengisa okusebenzayo, ngendlela yesithathu eshiwo ngenhla.Osomnotho abaningi balindele ukuthi i-Fed ihlose ukwehlisa ibhalansi yayo cishe ngama- $ 3 trillion eminyakeni emithathu.Kodwa amaminithi awazange acacise ukuthi i-cap izofakwa kanjani, imininingwane okungenzeka imenyezelwe emhlanganweni kaMeyi.Uma i-Fed iqhubeka nokuncipha ishidi layo lebhalansi njengoba kuhlongozwa, lizoba elikhulu kunawo wonke.
Nciphisa ing iyakhula ngesivinini , umthelela ungase ungabi kwaqina
Umjikelezo wokugcina wokuncipha wawuphakathi kuka-2017 no-2019. Kuthathe isikhathi eside kakhulu ukuqala ukuncipha kwe-balance sheet ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo ezine ngo-2015. Futhi kuthathe unyaka wonke ukuthi i-Fed ifinyelele izinga layo eliphezulu lama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-50 ngenyanga.
Lo mzuliswano wokuncipha ungasuka ku-zero uye ku-$95 billion ezinyangeni ezintathu.Izimakethe zilindele ukuncishiswa kwaminyaka yonke okungaphezu kwe- $1.1 trillion.Lokhu kusho ukuthi ekupheleni kwalo nyaka noma ekuqaleni konyaka ozayo, ijubane lokufinyela kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule inani lawo wonke umjikelezo wezi-2017-2019.
Uma kuqhathaniswa nomzuliswano odlule, i-Federal Reserve inciphise ishidi layo lebhalansi ngesivinini esisheshayo nangomfutho omkhulu, futhi yathumela isignali yokuqinisa enamandla.Ingabe uhlelo "olunolaka" lokunciphisa ishidi lebhalansi luzosheshisa ukukhuphuka kwesivuno sikaMgcinimafa?
Njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, lo mzuliswano wokuwohloka uzokuba "ungenzi lutho" ngendlela yokumisa isibopho sokutshalwa kabusha kwezimali.Kodwa-ke, ukuncipha "kwe-passive" kweshidi lebhalansi akwenzi i-oda lokuthengisa emakethe, ngeke kukhuphule ngokuqondile isiphetho eside sezinga lenzalo, umthelela wezinga lenzalo awuqondile kakhulu.Uma sibheka indlela ezisabela ngayo ezimakethe, izilinganiso zenzalo yemakethe ekhuphukayo yakamuva, okuhlanganisa izilinganiso zebhondi yoMgcinimafa kanye nezilinganiso zezindlu, sezivele zinamanani omthelela wokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo okulandelayo kanye nokuncipha kweshidi lebhalansi, futhi acishe akhethe umphumela "wokhozi".
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-23-2022