Ngabe uPowell uzoba iVolcker yesibili?
06/23/2022
Ukuphupha emuva kwe 1970s
NgoLwesithathu, i-Federal Reserve inyuse izinga lenzalo ngamaphuzu angama-75, okuyisinyathelo esikhulu kunazo zonke eminyakeni ecishe ibe ngamashumi amathathu ukunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Muva nje, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuye kwaba seqophelweni eliphezulu leminyaka engu-40 izinyanga eziningi kulokho okungase kubizwe ngokuthi “isikhathi eside” sokwehla kwamandla emali okuphakeme, okukhumbula inkinga engakaze ibonwe yokwehla kwamandla emali eyaqubuka ngeminyaka yawo-1970.
Ngaleso sikhathi, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali e-US lake lenyuka lafinyelela ku-15%, ukukhula kwe-GDP kwehla, izinga labantu abangasebenzi lenyuka.Nokho, i-Federal Reserve yazamazama phakathi kokubhekana nokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokuqashwa, okwaphumela ekwenyukeni kokwehla kwamandla emali nokukhula kancane komnotho.
Kwakungu-Paul Volcker, ngaleso sikhathi owayengusihlalo weFederal Reserve, owasiza ngempela i-US ukuthi isuse usizi lwayo olwaluyizimbangi ngeminyaka yawo-1980 - wanqoba yonke imibono ephikisayo futhi wabeka izinqubomgomo zokuqiniswa ngamandla okuduma.Izinga lokungasebenzi likhuphuke lisuka ku-6% laya ku-11% ngesikhathi esifushane ngemva kokwenyusa inzalo engaphezu kuka-10%.
Ngaleso sikhathi, izisebenzi zokwakha zamthumelela amabhulokhi amapulangwe amakhulu zimphikisa, abathengisi bezimoto bamthumelela okhiye bezimoto ezintsha ababengafunwa muntu, futhi abalimi bogandaganda bayamemeza ngaphandle kwesakhiwo semabula esimhlophe saseFederal Reserve.Kepha akukho kulokhu okuye kwanyakazisa uMnu Volcker.
Kamuva, wakhuphula izinga lenzalo elilinganiselwe lafinyelela ngaphezu kwama-20%, ehlisa izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali okwakubi kakhulu ngaleso sikhathi, inkinga yakwazi ukusondela ekupheleni, umnotho wahlehliswa endleleni, okwabeka isisekelo samashumi eminyaka alandela. lokuchuma.
Ingabe isikhathi se-Volcker siyeza?
Ukweqa kwe-Fed emazingeni enzalo kusukela ngoMashi kwenza izimakethe zazamazama: isikhathi se-Volcker sesifikile futhi.
Kodwa-ke, kuyathakazelisa ukuthi i-Fed ngokwayo ayizange idlulise ngokucacile isignali yokukhuphuka kwezinga le-75BP emakethe ngobusuku bangaphambi kwalo mhlangano wezinga, futhi kunengqondo ukusho ukuthi ukusebenza bekungaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe.
Kodwa kusukela ngomhlaka-15 Juni, imakethe inenani eliphelele kulokhu kukhuphuka kwezinga, ngosuku lapho ukukhuphuka kwenani kwafika khona, imakethe yaba yizindaba ezingezinhle futhi amasheya ase-US namabhondi akhuphuka ndawonye.
Izimbangela zalesi simo ukuthi idatha ye-CPI yeqe kakhulu obekulindelekile kanye nombiko ku-Wall Street Journal - iphephabhuku elaziwa ngokuthi "i-Federal Reserve News Agency".
Lo mbiko uveze ukuthi uchungechunge lwemibiko ephazamisayo yokwehla kwamandla emali ezinsukwini zamuva kungenzeka ukuthi luholele izikhulu ze-Fed ukuthi zicabangele ukwanda okungalindelekile kwamaphuzu angama-75 emhlanganweni waleli sonto.
Lesi sihloko sibangele isiphithiphithi emakethe, ngisho nezinkulu zemboni uGoldman Sachs no-JPMorgan balandela ukuhola kwakhe futhi babuyekeza izibikezelo zabo ngobusuku obubodwa.
Imakethe iqale ukushesha ukukhuphuka intengo ngo-75 BP kulo mhlangano wezinga, futhi ukunyuka kwezinga le-Fed obekulindelekile ngoJuni ngokushesha kwathumela amathuba okukhuphuka kwamaphoyinti angama-75 akhuphukela ngaphezulu kwama-90%, azi ukuthi isibalo sasingu-3.9% kuphela ngesonto eledlule.
Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, kubonakala sengathi i-Fed iholwa yimakethe: inyuse amanani ngamaphoyinti angu-75 ngaphandle kokwenza noma yikuphi "okulindelwe" kusengaphambili.
Ukwengeza, u-Powell uphinde wakhulula imilayezo edidayo engqungqutheleni: amaphuzu angu-75 wesisekelo sokukhuphuka kwezinga angeke abe yinto evamile ukubonwa, kodwa okunye ukunyuka kwe-75bp kungenzeka ngoJulayi.Wacabanga ukuthi okulindelwe ukwehla kwamandla emali kwabathengi kubhekene nezingozi ezivela ku-inflation eyinhloko, kodwa okwamanje, wathi futhi izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali eliyinhloko lamanje alizange lithinte okulindelwe nganoma iyiphi indlela eyisisekelo.
Izinkulumo ezididayo nezimpendulo ezingacacile kanye nesilinganiso sokuphusha zonke izinqumo kudatha eyalandela kwenze kwaba nzima ngathi ukubona ukuqina okufanayo nokuqina ekulweni nokwehla kwamandla emali okuvela ku-Powell njengo-Volcker.
Kuze kube manje, lokho imakethe ekwesaba kakhulu akukhona ukunyuka kwezinga, kodwa i-Fed edidayo kakhulu.
Yiziphi izimo ezingaphela i izinga lokukhuphuka?
Ngo-March, i-FOMC dot plot ibonise ukuthi i-Fed izophakamisa amanani kancane kancane eminyakeni emibili ezayo;kuyilapho isiqephu samanje se-FOMC samachashazi sibonisa ukuthi ngemva kokukhuphuka kwezinga elikhulu phakathi nalo nyaka kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga elincane ngonyaka ozayo, i-Fed kulindeleke ukuthi iqale ukusika amazinga ngonyaka olandelayo.
Kodwa ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukuqina, ukukhula kwakha "unxantathu ongenakwenzeka", i-FOMC yaphinde yagcizelela ukuthi ukuxazulula ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyinhloso eyinhloko, uma okuhloswe ngakho okuyinhloko ukuvikela ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye ne-austerity, khona-ke ukwehla komnotho cishe akunakugwenywa.
Ukugcina ukwehla kwamandla emali ngaphansi kokulawula kuwumdlalo, kukhumbula ukuthi izenzo zikaMnu Volcker zihambisane nokwehla komnotho okubili, futhi ubonise ukubaluleka kokuthi I-Fed igcine ukuqina kwamanani.Ngokugcina ukuqina kwentengo kuphela lapho kuzoba khona ukukhula okuqinile kwesikhathi eside.
Manje kubonakala sengathi ukuthuthukiswa okuphawulekayo kuphela kwe-inflation, ukunyuka okunamandla kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi, noma inkinga yezomnotho noma yemakethe kuzovimbela i-Fed.
Kodwa njengoba ama-ejensi amaningi akhipha izexwayiso zokuwohloka komnotho, imakethe ingase iqale kancane kancane intengo ezingozini eziphansi emnothweni, futhi singalindela ukubona isivuno sebhondi yase-US yeminyaka eyi-10 sibuyela emuva ngaphansi kuka-2.5% ngisho nangaphambi kokuphela konyaka.
Nokho, ubumnyama ngaphambi kokuntwela kokusa bungase bube bunzima kakhulu.
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-23-2022