Kungani Kwenzile i-Fed Rwadla Cut May Not Be Far Aindlela
07/06/2022
I-Big Short Prototype: I-Fed izohlehlisa deflation !
Lapho abathengi bejabulela ukukhushulwa kwesizini “okungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili”, abazi ukuthi abathengisi baseMelika babhekene “nenkinga yempahla” embi kakhulu selokhu kwaqhuma ibhamuza le-inthanethi.
NgoMsombuluko, uMichael Burry, umlingisi oyinhloko wefilimu ethi “The Big Short”, owayedume ngokubikezela inhlekelele yezomnotho ka-2008, wathi “Umphumela We-Bullwhip” emkhakheni wezokuthengisa uzoholela ekuguqulweni kokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo ye-Fed.
Ngakho-ke, yini i-Bullwhip Effect?Kubhekiselwa ekwandiseni nasekuhlukeni kwesidingo ku-supply chain.
Ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka, izinguquko ezincane ezidingweni zizokhuliswa isinyathelo ngesinyathelo kusuka kubathengisi kuya kubakhiqizi nabahlinzeki, futhi ukwabelana ngolwazi ngeke kuzuzwe ngempumelelo phakathi kwabo.Lokhu kuhlanekezelwa nokukhulisa ulwazi kubukeka sengathi i-bullwhip ngesithombe, ngakho-ke kuqanjwe “Umphumela We-Bullwhip”.
Ngonyaka odlule, uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke lwalunesiphithiphithi.Ngaleso sikhathi, izinkinga zegebe lokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo ezibangelwa ubhubhane zazibucayi.Abathengisi nabathengisi bezitolo baphuthunyiswa ukuthenga izimpahla ukuze bagcwalise kabusha uhlu lwabo lwezimpahla ngenxa yokwesaba ukuthi bazophelelwa isitokwe, okuphinde kwaholela “ekukhulumeni” kubakhiqizi abayinhloko, ngaleyo ndlela bakhuphule amanani futhi banwebe ukukhiqizwa kanyekanye.
Kodwa-ke, njengoba isidingo sincipha kancane kancane, uhlu lwabathengisi lwanda, futhi baze bagijimela ukususa uhlu lwempahla eyeqile, okwaholela ekwehleni ngokushesha kwamanani emikhiqizo eminingi ebalulekile.
Njengoba izinto ziqhubeka, umthelela kancane kancane wangena ezingeni eliwumongo lokwehla kwamandla emali.
NgokukaMichael Burry, ukunikezwa ngokweqile kwangaphambilini emkhakheni wezokuthengisa kuholela ku- "Bullwhip Effect".Kodwa-ke, ngokuncipha kwesidingo, i-"Bullwhip Effect" iyaphela futhi izobangela ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka.Lokhu kwazisa i-Fed ukuthi ihlehlise indlela yokuqinisa noma iqale kabusha inqubomgomo yokunciphisa inani.
I s t yena" Ngemuva kokuvuselela okuqinile kokuqala ” ugibe kunzima ukuphunyuka?
“Ngemva komfutho wokuqala oqinile” kuwugibe olujwayelekile lwenqubomgomo olwadida amabhange amaningi asentshonalanga ngeminyaka yawo-1970 kanye nawo-1980.Kusahlupha amanye amazwe asathuthuka kuze kube namuhla.
Ngamafuphi, lesi sicupho singachazwa njengezinqubomgomo zemali zeBhange Elikhulu ezishintsha phakathi kwe-inflation ephansi kanye nokukhula okuphezulu ngokuphindaphindiwe, ekugcineni ehluleka ukulinganisa le migomo emibili.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ngokomlando, isenzakalo lapho i-Federal Reserve inciphisa amanani enzalo ngokushesha ngemva kokuba ukunyuka kwezinga kungenzeki, futhi kungase kwenzeke kaningi kunalokho ongase ucabange.
Ishadi elingenhla libonisa i-CPI emaphakathi yase-US ekuqaleni komjikelezo ngamunye we-Fed's 13 wokwenyuka kwezinga phakathi neminyaka engu-70 edlule, kanye nenani le-CPI ekuqaleni komjikelezo wokunqanyulwa kwesilinganiso senzalo ngemva komjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo.
Ishadi libonisa ukuthi kuvame ukuba negebe lezinyanga ezine phakathi kokwenyuka kwezinga lokugcina le-Fed kanye nokuncishiswa kwezinga lokuqala.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-CPI emaphakathi yayisafinyelela ku-4.4% ngesikhathi sokunciphisa izinga lenzalo yokuqala, okubonisa ukuthi izinqumo ze-Fed ngenani lenzalo zisekelwe kakhulu ekubhekeni phambili kunokuba kwenzekani manje.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunezikhathi eziningi emlandweni lapho i-Fed iqala kabusha ukuncishiswa kwezinga lenzalo nakuba ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala kuphezulu.
Nakuba umlando ungamane uziphindaphinde, uhlala unokufana.Abahlaziyi abaningi baphinde bathi kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi i-Fed izobuyela emuva kuphethini yayo yomlando "yokukhuphula amanani ngaphambi kokuwanciphisa".
Kungase kube khona "ukuma" esilinganisweni hamba ngezinyawo kulo nyaka
NgoLwesine, uMnyango Wezohwebo umemezele ukuthi i-PCE eyinhloko (Personal Consumption Expenditure) ukukhula kwe-Price Index kuye kwancipha ku-4.7% ngoMeyi.
Isithombe esingenhla yinkomba yokwehla kwamandla emali ekhethwa yi-Fed.Ukwehla kwenani lentengo ye-PCE kusho ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali ngaphandle kokudla namandla akuseyona "phezulu," futhi kukhona ubufakazi bokuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka.
Njengoba isivuno seminyaka engu-10 sehla sisuka ku-2.973% saya ku-2.889%, akubonakali kulula ukubuyela ku-3% futhi.
Ngaphandle kokuvela kwephuzu lokwenyuka kwamanani emali, isizathu esibaluleke kakhulu sokwehla kwesivuno sikaMgcinimafa wubufakazi obukhulayo obukhombisa ukuthi umnotho untenga.
Izimakethe sezivele zibhekane nethuba lokuhlehliswa kwenqubomgomo ye-Fed ngokushesha.
Amasu okutshala izimali ku-Mauldin Economics acabanga ukuthi i-Fed ingase imise emhlanganweni wayo ngasekupheleni kukaSeptemba;nokho-ke, elithi “stop” lingasho ukunyuka kwezinga lekota esikhundleni sokukhuphuka kwamaphuzu angama-50 noma angama-75.
Ake sithi i-Fed icabangele ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyinhloko kuye kwancipha futhi yazi ngempela ukuthi umnotho uwela ekuwohlokeni.Kuleso simo, bangaqalisa kabusha izinqubomgomo zokunciphisa inani ngisho noma ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehluleka ukufinyelela umgomo wawo okahle wesivuno esingamaphesenti angu-2.
Ngamanye amazwi, mhlawumbe singabona i-Fed inciphisa ijubane lokuqinisa ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, kuyilapho ukuguqulwa kwenqubomgomo ukuqala ukusika amazinga akukude kakhulu.
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-07-2022