Lesi sitatimende sisho ukuthi i-Fed izokhawulela ukunyuka kwezinga likaDisemba kuya kumaphuzu angu-50.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abahlanganyeli bathi, "Ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kokubambezeleka kwenqubomgomo yezimali, isivinini esihamba kancane sokunyuka kwezinga singavumela i-FOMC ukuthi ihlole inqubekela phambili ekufinyeleleni imigomo yayo futhi iphethe ngokuthi - inani eliphakeme lezimali ze-federal lizoba phezulu kakhulu kunangaphambili. okuhlosiwe.

Ngamanye amazwi, umjikelezo wamanje we-Fed wokwenyuka kwezinga usungene esigabeni esisha, esihamba kancane kodwa esiphezulu futhi eside.

I-Fed ivume ukwehla kwenqubomgomo yezimali futhi yakwenza kwacaca ukuthi imiphumela yokwenyuka kwamanani angaphambilini ayikadluliselwa ngokugcwele emakethe nokuthi lokhu kubambezeleka "akuqinisekile."

Ngenxa yalokho, i-Fed inqume ukwehlisa ijubane lokukhuphuka kwamanani ukuze iqaphe kangcono umphumela wokwenyuka kwamanani ekuqukethe ukwehla kwamandla emali.

 

Ukwenyuka kwamanani kuzophela ngo-2023

Okwenza imakethe ihlale phansi futhi iqaphele iqiniso lokuthi i-Fed yabhekana ngokusobala nengozi yokuwohloka komnotho okokuqala ngqa emizuzwini - amathuba okuwohloka komnotho e-US ngo-2023 alinganiselwa cishe ku-50%.

Lesi isexwayiso sokuqala esifanayo esivela ku-Fed selokhu yaqala ukunyusa amanani enzalo ngoMashi, isexwayiso esiphinde savuselela umbono wemakethe wokwehliswa kwamanani kusukela ngo-2023.

Ngemva kokukhishwa kwamaminithi, isivuno sebhondi yase-US yeminyaka eyi-10 sibuyele emuva ku-3.663%;Amathuba okwenyuka kwamaphuzu angama-50 ngoZibandlela nawo akhuphuke afinyelela ku-75.8%.

Abantu abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi “uklebe” lwe-Fed seludlondlobele, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi umjikelezo wamanje wokwenyuka kwezinga uphele ngo-2023.

Umbiko wakamuva nawo uyasisekela lesi sibikezelo.

Ngokwesibikezelo seGoldman Sachs, inkomba ye-CPI izokwehla ibe ngaphansi kuka-5% ngemihlangano eminingi yenzalo ngonyaka ozayo.

Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kubonakala kuphansi ngokuqhubekayo ngonyaka ozayo, ukumiswa kwe-Fed kokwenyuka kwezinga sekuseduze.

 

Ibukeka kanjani indlela yesikhathi esizayo?

Qaphela ukuthi Umhlangano we-FOMC kaNovemba wandulela ukukhishwa kuka-Okthoba kwe-CPI.

Ngokupholisa kwe-CPI ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe ngenyanga edlule, imibono yakamuva yezikhulu ze-Fed ingase ibe nolwazi oluthe xaxa mayelana nenkambo yenqubomgomo yesikhathi esizayo.

Kodwa-ke, kuyacaca futhi emazwini omphakathi akamuva ukuthi izikhulu eziningi ze-Fed zithatha umbono ofanayo nalowo emaminithini - ijubane lokunyuka kwezinga lingancishiswa, kodwa kusekhona isidingo sokuqinisa inqubomgomo ngokuqhubekayo.

Izikhulu eziningi zibeke izinga eliqondiwe cishe ku-5%.Lokho kusho ukuthi amanani azokhuphuka ngoMashi olandelayo uma i-Fed inyusa amanani ngamaphoyinti angama-50 ngoDisemba, njengoba kulindelekile.

Ngaleso sikhathi, izinga lezimali ze-Fed lizoba ngu-5.0% - 5.25% futhi lizohlala kulolo banga isikhathi esithile.

Ngokwesibikezelo sakamuva se-Wind, imihlangano yezinga lenzalo eyisishiyagalombili ngo-2023 (February, March, May, June, July, September, November, and December) izolandela indlela elandelayo.

 

Ukunyuka kwezinga lamaphuzu angama-50 ngoFebhuwari.

25 bps izinga lokunyuka ngoMashi (yima kancane izinga lokunyuka ngemva kwalokho).

Isilinganiso se-bps esingu-25 esisikwe ngoDisemba (inguquko yokuqala kuya ekusikeni kwesilinganiso)

 

I-Federal Reserve izobamba umhlangano wayo wokugcina wenqubomgomo yezimali yonyaka ngoDisemba 13-14, futhi ukwenyuka kwamaphuzu angama-50 kungabhekwa njengokuqiniseka okuphelele.

Uma i-Fed inciphisa amanani ngokokuqala ngqa, ukusuka kumaphuzu angu-75 kuya kumaphuzu angu-50, amanani emali mboleko nawo kulindeleke ukuthi ehle kancane ngaleso sikhathi.