NgoLwesithathu, i-Fed imemezele isinqumo sayo sakamuva sezinga lenzalo, imemezela ukwenyuka kwamaphuzu angama-50, futhi izoqala ukunciphisa ishidi layo lebhalansi ngoJuni.

Mayelana nenqubomgomo yokuqinisa eqinile ye-Fed, impendulo yemakethe ibonakala inethemba elikhulu, ngomqondo wokuthi imakethe ifakwe ezindabeni ezimbi.

I-S&P 500 ithole inzuzo enkulu kakhulu yephesenti yosuku olulodwa cishe unyaka, kanti ibhondi yase-US yeminyaka eyi-10 nayo yehla ngemuva kokushaya u-3%, kanye yehle yafika ku-2.91%.

Ngokomqondo ovamile, i-Fed yamemezela ukukhuphuka kwezinga, okwakuyimali eqiniswayo, imakethe yamasheya izoba nokwehla okuthile, futhi kunengqondo ukuthi izibopho zase-US nazo kufanele zikhuphuke ekuphenduleni.Nokho, kungani kunokusabela okuphambene nalokho okulindelekile?

Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi imakethe inenani eliphelele ezenzweni ze-Fed (Price-in) futhi yenza impendulo yangaphambi kwesikhathi.Konke sibonga abaphathi abalindelwe yi-Fed - babamba imihlangano yezinga lenzalo yanyanga zonke ngaphambi kokwenyuswa kwezinga.Ngaphambi komhlangano, baxhumana ngokuphindaphindiwe futhi njalo nemakethe ukuze badlulisele okulindelekile kwezomnotho, okuholela emakethe ukuba yamukele izinguquko kunqubomgomo yezimali.

Eqinisweni, ngasekupheleni konyaka odlule, ngemva kokuba uSihlalo we-Fed u-Powell eqokwe kabusha, washintsha isitayela sakhe sangaphambili sejuba futhi waba nolaka.

Ngaphansi “kokulawulwa kokulindela” kwe-Fed, okulindelwe yimakethe kushintshile kusukela ekutheni kuzoba khona ukuncishiswa kuya kokuthi kuzoba khona yini ukwenyuka kwezinga, futhi kwanda kusuka kumaphuzu angama-25 kuya kwangama-50.Ngaphansi kwethonya le-hawkish evamile, inzondo ekhuphukayo ekugcineni iguquke yaba amaphuzu angu-75.Ekugcineni, “amaqembu amajuba” e-Fed akhuphule amanani ngamaphuzu angama-50.

Uma kuqhathaniswa namaphoyinti angu-25 adlule, amaphuzu angu-50 kanye nohlelo oluzayo lokunciphisa ithebula ngokungangabazeki anolaka kakhulu.Ekugcineni, umphumela waba "ngaphakathi kokulindela" ngoba i-Fed yayenze ukulindela amaphuzu angu-75.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkulumo ka-Powell iphinde yakhipha isinqumo sokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo eyengeziwe, okwenza kube ngcono kakhulu emizweni yemakethe nokunciphisa ukukhathazeka mayelana nokuqiniswa ngokweqile.

Ngokukhululwa okuqhubekayo okuqhubekayo "kwezimpawu ze-hawkish", i-Federal Reserve iqhuba ukuphathwa kokulindela, okungagcini nje ukusheshisa umjikelezo wokuqinisa, kodwa futhi kuthulisa imakethe, ukuze umphumela "we-Boot Landing" uzovela ekugcineni, ngaleyo ndlela sebenzisa isikhathi soguquko lwenqubomgomo ngobuhlakani nangokuqhubekayo.

Ukuqonda ubuciko be-Fed bokuphatha okulindelekile, akudingeki sithuke kakhulu lapho izinga likhuphuka.Kufanele kwaziwe ukuthi izinto ezisongela kakhulu ngeke zenzeke ngaphambi kokuba izinga lehle lisuka phezulu.Imakethe kungenzeka ukuthi isivele ikugayile "obekulindelwe" futhi yaze yathola imali emthelela wokunyuka kwezinga kusenesikhathi.

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi okulindelekile kuphelele kangakanani, akukwazi ukufihla iqiniso lokuthi i-Fed isesendleleni yenqubomgomo yokuqinisa imali eqinile;okungukuthi, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amanani omgcinimafa noma amanani emalimboleko ayakhuphuka, kunzima ukubona iphuzu lokushintsha esikhathini esifushane.

Umlayezo obalulekile ukuthi idatha ye-inflation ka-April izokhishwa ngesonto elizayo;uma idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali ibuyela emuva, i-Fed ingase yehlise ijubane lokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo.

Ezinyangeni ezizayo, i-Fed cishe izophinda amaqhinga afanayo, okuvumela imakethe ukuthi igaye kusengaphambili ngokuphathwa kokulindela.Kufanele sikhiye amanani enzalo aphansi amanje ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka;njengoba isisho sakudala sithi inyoni esandleni ibiza izinyoni ezimbili ehlathini.

Okungenhla kungafingqwa ngomusho embonini yokuhweba: Thenga amahemuhemu, uthengise izindaba.