Inkulumo kaPowell yemizuzu eyisishiyagalombili ithukile
yonke i-Wall Street?
09/02/2022
Iyini imfihlo yale nkulumo?
Umhlangano waminyaka yonke we-Jackson Hole waziwa emibuthanweni ngokuthi "umhlangano waminyaka yonke wamabhange amaphakathi omhlaba", umhlangano waminyaka yonke wamabhange amakhulu emhlabeni ukudingida inqubomgomo yezimali, kodwa futhi ngokwesiko abaholi benqubomgomo yezimali emhlabeni wonke bembula inqubomgomo ebalulekile yezimali "umoya". vane" yekusasa.
Yini abatshalizimali abakhathazeke kakhulu ngayo kulo mhlangano waminyaka yonke webhange elikhulu e-Jackson Hole?Ngaphandle kokungabaza, inkulumo kaPowell iyona ehamba phambili.
USihlalo we-Federal Reserve u-Powell ukhulume ngesihloko esithi "inqubomgomo yemali nokuzinza kwentengo", amagama angu-1300 kuphela, imizuzu engaphansi kwe-10 yokukhuluma, amagama abangela ukuthi yonke imakethe ibangele igagasi elikhulu.
Lena inkulumo yokuqala kaPowell yomphakathi kusukela emhlanganweni we-FOMC ngasekupheleni kukaJulayi, futhi umnyombo wenkulumo yakhe ngalesi sikhathi empeleni amagama amabili - ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphansi.
Sifingqa okuqukethwe okuyinhloko ngale ndlela elandelayo.
1. Idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali yangoJulayi yaba ngcono ngokumangalisayo, isimo sokwehla kwamandla emali sihlala siqinile, futhi i-Fed Reserve ngeke iyeke ukukhuphula amanani emazingeni akhawulelwe.
Ukwehlisa ukwehla kwamandla emali kungase kudinge ukugcinwa kwenqubomgomo yemali eqinile isikhathi esithile, u-Powell akavumi ukuthi imakethe inenani lentengo ngokuncishiswa kwezinga ngonyaka ozayo.
U-Powell ugcizelele ukuthi ukuphatha okulindelekile ku-inflation kubalulekile futhi waphinda wathi ijubane lokunyuka kwamazinga lingase lihambe kancane esikhathini esithile esizayo.
Liyini "izinga lokukhawulela?"Lokhu sekuvele kushiwo yizikhulu eziphezulu ze-Fed: izinga elilinganiselwe lizoba "ngaphezu kuka-3%.
Izinga lenqubomgomo ye-Federal Reserve yamanje yi-2.25% kuya ku-2.5%.Ngamanye amazwi, ukuze kufinyelelwe izinga lesilinganiso esinqunyelwe, i-Fed izokhuphula izilinganiso zenzalo okungenani ngamanye amaphuzu angu-75.
Sekukonke, u-Powell uphindaphinde ngendlela engakaze ibonwe ye-Hawkish ukuthi "ukwehla kwamandla emali akumi, ukukhuphuka kwezinga akuyeki" futhi waxwayisa ngokuthi inqubomgomo yezimali akufanele idambiswe ngokushesha.
Powell njengoklebe, kungani amasheya ase-US esaba ukwehla?
U-Powell uchithe cishe imizuzu eyisishiyagalombili kuphela yenkulumo yakhe ephazamisa ngokuphelele isimo sezimakethe zamasheya zaseMelika kusukela ngoJuni.
Eqinisweni, amazwi kaPowell awahlukile kakhulu esitatimendeni sakhe sangaphambilini, kodwa aqine ngokwengeziwe esimweni sengqondo kanye nephimbo eliqinile.
Ngakho-ke yini eholele ekushaqekeni okubi kangaka ezimakethe zezimali?
Ukusebenza kwemakethe ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwezinga likaJulayi kushiya ngokungangabazeki ukuthi ukuphathwa kokulindela kwe-Fed kuhlulekile.Amathuba okwehlisa izinga lokukhuphuka kwamanani esikhathi esizayo enze ukukhuphuka kwamaphoyinti angama-75 kube yize.
Imakethe inethemba ngokwedlulele, kodwa noma isiphi isitatimende sikaPowell esingenangqondo ngokwanele sizohunyushwa njengesixaka, futhi nangobusuku bangaphambi komhlangano, kubonakala kunethemba elingenalutho lokuthi inkulumo ye-Fed izoshintsha.
Kodwa-ke, inkulumo kaPowell emhlanganweni yavusa imakethe ngokuphelele, futhi yacekela phansi yonke imimoya eyayingenangqondo ngaphambili.
Futhi kukhona ukuqaphela okukhulayo kokuthi i-Fed ngeke ilungise isimo sayo samanje se-hawkish kuze kube yilapho ifinyelela umgomo wayo wokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokuthi amanani enzalo ephezulu angase agcinwe isikhathi esibalulekile, kunokuncishiswa kwezinga okucatshangelwe ngaphambilini okungase kuqale ku-inflation. maphakathi nonyaka ozayo.
Amathuba okuba amaphuzu ayisisekelo angama-75 akhuphuka
Ngemva komhlangano, isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 sebhondi kaMgcinimafa sasingaphezu kuka-3% ngokuqinile, futhi ukuguqulwa kwesivuno sebhondi yeminyaka engu-2 kuya kweyi-10 kaMgcinimafa kwajula, okungenzeka ukuthi anyuke amaphuzu angama-75 ngoSepthemba akhuphuke afinyelela ku-61% 47% ngaphambilini.
Umthombo wesithombe: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Ngosuku lomhlangano, ngokushesha ngaphambi kwenkulumo kaPowell, uMnyango Wezohwebo umemezele ukuthi inkomba yentengo ye-PCE yezindleko zomuntu siqu ikhuphuke ngo-6.3% unyaka nonyaka ngoJulayi, ngaphansi kwe-6.8% okulindeleke ngoJuni.
Nakuba idatha ye-PCE ibonisa ukulinganisela ekukhuleni kwentengo, kungenzeka ukuthi i-75 isisekelo sokukhuphuka kwezinga le-75 ngo-September akufanele sithathwe kancane.
Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi u-Powell wagcizelela ngokuphindaphindiwe enkulumweni yakhe ukuthi kusengaphambi kwesikhathi ukuphetha ngokuthi "ukwehla kwamandla emali kuye kwehle" ngokusekelwe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kuphela zedatha.
Okwesibili, umnotho usalokhu uqinile njengoba i-GDP kanye nedatha yokuqashwa iqhubeka nokubuyekezwa phezulu, kunciphisa ukwesaba ezimakethe zokuwohloka komnotho.
Umthombo: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/revision-shows-mild-us-economic-contraction-second-quarter-2022-08-25/
Ngemva kwalo mhlangano, kungase kube noshintsho endleleni okulindelwe kuqondiswe ngayo kunqubomgomo ye-Fed.
"Isinqumo somhlangano kaSepthemba sizoncika kudatha ephelele kanye nombono wezomnotho," esimweni sokungaqiniseki okuphezulu kwezomnotho kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali, "khuluma kancane futhi ubuke kakhulu" kungase kube ukukhetha okungcono kwe-Federal Reserve.
Izimakethe zidukiswe kakhulu manje kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi kulo nyaka, futhi umzuliswano wokugcina wokuqashwa kanye nedatha yokwehla kwamandla emali ngaphambi komhlangano wamanani kaSepthemba uzoba obaluleke kakhulu.
Singalinda kuphela futhi sibone kule datha nokuthi inganyakazisa yini ukukhuphuka kwezinga lamaphuzu angu-75 osekunqunyiwe kakade ngoSepthemba.
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-03-2022