Izilinganiso zenzalo ephezulu zizohlala isikhathi esingakanani ngemva kokuphela kokwenyuka kwezinga?
01/20/2023
Ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyaqhubeka kuphola!Ukuphela Kwenkathi Yokunyuka Kwezinga Elinamandla
Izinsuku zokukhuphuka kwezinga elinamandla seziphelile - idatha yakamuva ekhishwe yi-CPI ibingcono kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe.
NgoJanuwari 12, idatha ye-Bureau of Labor Statistics ibonise ukuthi i-US CPI ikhule ngenani eliphansi lika-6.5% ngoDisemba 2022, yehle isuka ku-7.1% ngoNovemba futhi ngaphansi kwenani eliphakeme elingu-9.1% ngoJuni.
I-Consumer Price Index yehle unyaka nonyaka enyangeni yesithupha ilandelana, yafinyelela ezingeni layo eliphansi kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2021, futhi yayingeyinhle unyaka nonyaka okokuqala ngqa eminyakeni emithathu.
Lena idatha yokugcina etholakalayo evela ku-CPI ngaphambi kokuba i-Fed imemezele isinqumo sayo sokukhuphula izinga lenzalo ngo-February 1. Kanye nedatha ephansi kunobekulindelekile yezinyanga ezidlule, ibonisa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali e-USA kwehla kakhulu futhi izingcindezi zamanani zikhuphuke kakhulu. .
Le datha kulindeleke ukuthi yenze i-Fed ibambezele ijubane lokukhuphuka kwezinga futhi: Ukulindela kwamanje kwemakethe yomhlangano olandelayo we-Fed ukukhulisa amanani ngamaphoyinti angu-25 empeleni kungaphezu kuka-93%!
Umthombo wesithombe: Ithuluzi le-CME FedWatch
Kungashiwo ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamaphuzu angama-25 ngoFebhuwari kwaqinisekiswa ngokuyisisekelo, okusho ukuthi inkathi yokwenyuka kwezinga eliphakeme isiphelile!
Futhi ukukhuphuka kwezinga elihlanganisiwe ngoFebhuwari nangoMashi kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngaphansi kwamaphuzu angu-50, okubonisa ukuthi kungenzeka nakanjani ukuthi i-Fed ngeke inyuse amanani ngoMashi nokuthi umjikelezo wokunyuka kwezinga ungene ngokusemthethweni ekubaleni phansi!
Ukwehla kwamandla emali nakho kuzokhula ngesivinini!
Uma kubhekwa into encane, ukwehla kwe-CPI ngoZibandlela kudalwe ikakhulukazi ukwehla kwamanani kaphethiloli kanye nokuqhubeka nokwehla kwezintengo zempahla.
Kodwa-ke, ngezindlu, umshayeli oyinhloko we-inflation yezinsizakalo eziyinhloko, izinga lokukhula kwamanani okuqasha alizange libonise ukwehla okuphawulekayo ngo-December.
Lokhu kusikisela ukuthi ukwehla kwerenti akukakadluliswa ku-CPI futhi kamuva kuzothuthukisa ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izintengo zamandla ezintekenteke, ukwehla kwezintengo zempahla, kanye nomthelela wesisekelo esiphezulu ngo-2022 kufanele kuholele ekwehleni okusheshayo kokwehla kwamandla emali okulandelayo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehla komnotho kube nzima ukukugwema kusukela i-Federal Reserve inqume ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali ngokunciphisa ukukhula komnotho.
Muva nje, izimpawu ezimbalwa zikhomba ukwehla komsebenzi wezomnotho wase-US - ukungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle kwehle ngoNovemba kusukela ngo-Okthoba, futhi ukuthengiswa kwezitolo, umkhiqizo wokukhiqiza kanye nokuthengiswa kwezindlu nakho kwehlile.
Ngokwesibikezelo sakamuva esivela kwaGoldman Sachs, i-CPI kungenzeka yehle ibe ngaphansi kuka-5% unyaka nonyaka ekupheleni kwekota yokuqala ngaphansi kwethonya lalezi zici ezingenhla, kuyilapho ingase yehle ifinyelele ku-3% ekupheleni kwekota yesibili.
Izilinganiso zenzalo eziphezulu zizohlala isikhathi esingakanani ngemva kokuphela kokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo?
Ukukhuphuka kwamaphuzu angu-25 ngoFebhuwari sekuvele kuphezu kwetafula, futhi i-Fed izophinde ibe namasethi amabili wedatha yokuqashwa kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali (01/2023, 02/2023) atholakalayo emhlanganweni wesilinganiso sika-March.
Uma le mibiko ibonisa ukuthi ukukhula kwemisebenzi kuyaqhubeka kuhamba kancane (imisebenzi emisha engaphansi kuka-300,000 engezona ezokulima) kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali kuyaqhubeka nokwehla, i-Fed cishe izoyeka ukunyusa amanani ngemva kokwenyuka kwamaphuzu angu-25 ngoMashi, okushiya amanani afinyelela phezulu cishe ku-5% .
2023 Ikhalenda Lomhlangano le-FOMC
Nokho, ukuze kugwenywe izifundo zeminyaka yawo-1970, lapho amanani enzalo ayenganyuswa kodwa ehliswa aphinde akhushulwe, okubangela ukushintshashintsha kwenqubomgomo, izikhulu ze-Fed zavuma ukuthi ngemva kokumiswa kokwenyuka kwamanani, inzalo kufanele igcinwe ezingeni eliphezulu. isikhathi esithile kuze kube nokwehla okukhulu kwamandla emali ngaphambi kokuba kuncishiswe izinga.
Isikhulu se-Fed u-Daley wabe esethi "kunengqondo ukubamba amanani entengo ephezulu cishe izinyanga eziyi-11".
Ngakho-ke uma i-Fed ingawakhuphuli amanani futhi ngoMashi, cishe sizobona ukwehla kwezinga ekuqaleni kuka-2024.
Izilinganiso zenzalo ephezulu zizohlala isikhathi esingakanani ngemva kokuphela kokwenyuka kwezinga?
Njengamanje, i-Fed isiqalile ukunciphisa kancane kancane izinga lenzalo yokwandisa ijubane, futhi kube khona ukuncipha okufanayo kwezinga lenzalo yokwenyuka kusukela ngo-1990 (1994-1995).
Kusukela kudatha yomlando, ukuvunwa kwebhondi yase-US kwehle kakhulu ezinyangeni ezi-3-6 ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwezinga le-Fed ngenani lenzalo elincishisiwe.
Ngamanye amazwi: Kungenzeka sibone ukwehla okukhulu kwenani lemali mboleko engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka.
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-21-2023