Ungakhohliswa yi-GDP!Uma ukwehla komnotho kungenakugwema ngo-2023, ingabe i-Fed izowanciphisa amanani?Azoyaphi amanani enzalo?
11/07/2022
Ngo-Okthoba 27, idatha ye-GDP yekota yesithathu yakhululwa.
I-GDP yekota yesithathu ikhuphuke ngo-2.6% oqinile unyaka nonyaka, engazange idlule nje kuphela okulindelwe emakethe ngo-2.4%, kodwa futhi yaqeda "ukwehla komnotho" okwedlule - izingxenye ezimbili ezilandelanayo zokukhula okungekuhle kwe-GDP engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.
I-GDP yaphenduka indawo engemihle yaya endaweni enhle, okusho ukuthi ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo kwe-Fed kwakungelona usongo olucatshangwayo ekuthuthukisweni komnotho.
Umuntu angacabanga ukuthi idatha yezomnotho enhle ngokuvamile iyisibonakaliso sokuthi i-Fed izoqhubeka nokukhuphula izinga lenzalo ngobudlova, kodwa imakethe ayizange iphendule ngokuqhubekayo.
Le datha ayizange iqede okulindelekile ekukhuphukeni kwamaphuzu angu-75 ngoNovemba, kodwa inyuse okulindelekile kokukhuphuka kwamaphuzu angu-50 (ukwehla kokuqala kwezinga lokukhuphuka) emhlanganweni kaDisemba.
Isizathu siwukuthi le datha ye-GDP ebonakala iyinhle empeleni igcwele "i-feint" ngokwesakhiwo esithile.
Ibe “ibi” kangakanani i-GDP engxenyeni yesithathu?
Njengoba singabona, izindleko zokusetshenziswa komuntu siqu ziyingxenye enkulu kakhulu yomnotho wase-US, isilinganiso esingaba ngu-60% we-GDP, futhi "ziwumgogodla" wokukhula komnotho wase-US.
Kodwa-ke, okunye ukwehla kwesabelo se-GDP okubalwe yizindleko zomuntu siqu kwikota yesithathu kumele ukuncipha okuqhubekayo ensikeni yokukhula komnotho futhi kubonakala kwabaningi njengesandulela sokuwohloka komnotho.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga lokukhula kwezinye izinto ezincane nalo lehlile.Pho, ubani ngempela oweseka ukukhula komnotho kwikota yesithathu?
Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okulandelayo kube negalelo elingama-2.77% ekukhuleni kwe-GDP kwikota yesithathu, ngakho-ke kungashiwo ukuthi ukukhula kwe-GDP engxenyeni yesithathu cishe kwasekelwa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe “kodwa”.
Isizathu salokhu ukuthi i-US yathumela amanani arekhodiwe kawoyela, igesi nezikhali eYurophu ngenxa yengxabano eqhubekayo yaseRussia-Ukraine.
Ngenxa yalokho, osomnotho ngokuvamile bacabanga ukuthi lesi simo singokwesikhashana futhi ngeke siqhubeke ezindaweni ezizayo.
Lesi sibalo se-GDP esimangalisayo cishe “siwukubuyela emuva” ngaphambi kokuwohloka komnotho.
I-Fed izojika nini ekhoneni?
Ngokwedatha yemodeli yakamuva evela e-Bloomberg, amathuba okuthi ukwehla komnotho ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezizayo amangalisayo ngo-100%.
Umthombo wesithombe: Bloomberg
Yengeza kulokho ukuthi inkambiso ephambene ekuvuthweni kwebhondi yase-US yezinyanga ezi-3 kanye neminyaka eyi-10, ethathwa njengezinkomba zokuwohloka komnotho, iyakhula, futhi ukwesaba ukuwohloka komnotho kuphinde kwaba namandla emakethe.
Ngokumelene nalokhu okwasemuva, ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo kuphoqeleka ukuthi kube yinkinga - ingabe i-Fed izowanciphisa amanani uma kwenzeka ukwehla komnotho?
Eqinisweni, ekuwohlokeni komnotho okune kweminyaka engama-30 edlule, i-Fed ilungise izilinganiso zenzalo ngephethini ethile.
Ngenxa yokuthi ukwehla komnotho kuvame ukuhambisana nokukhuphuka kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nokwehla kwesidingo sabathengi, i-Fed ngokuvamile iqala ukunciphisa amanani ezinyangeni ezintathu kuya kweziyisithupha ngemva kokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo ngomzamo wokuvuselela umnotho.
Nakuba i-Fed ingase ibe manqikanqika ukuguqula isimo ngokushesha futhi inciphise amanani, uma ukwehla komnotho kuqhubeka ngonyaka ozayo, i-Fed cishe izonquma phakathi nezinyanga eziyisithupha zamazinga afinyelela inani lawo lokugcina ukuze ayeke ukuphakamisa noma ukwehlisa amanani ukuze kuqiniswe umnotho.
Azokwehla nini amanani enzalo?
Kule minyaka engamashumi amathathu edlule, amanani ezindlu ezibolekiwe ehlile noma nini lapho umnotho ungena esimweni sokuwohloka komnotho.
Kodwa-ke, lapho i-Fed yehlisa amanani enzalo, amanani emali mboleko ngokuvamile awaphinde ehle ngokushesha.
Emazingeni amane okwehla komnotho, amanani emali mboleko yeminyaka engama-30 ehle ngesilinganiso esingaba ngu-1% phakathi nonyaka nengxenye kuqale ukuwohloka komnotho.
Ukukwazi ukukhokhela abathengi bezindlu okwamanje kuphansi kakhulu, kodwa kwabaningi abangase babe abathengi, ukwehla komnotho okunamandla cishe kuzoletha ingcuphe yokulahlekelwa umsebenzi noma amaholo aphansi, kuqhubeke kwanda ukukwazi ukuzikhokhela.
Ukukhuphuka kwezinga le-75 ngoNovemba kwakungeyona impikiswano, futhi umbuzo omkhulu ukuthi i-Fed izobonisa "i-taper" ngoDisemba.
Uma i-Fed ikhombisa ukwehla kwezinga lokukhuphuka kwamanani ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka, amanani emali ebolekiwe nawo azothatha umoya ngaleso sikhathi.
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-08-2022