08/08/2022

I-Federal Reserve ishintsha ukukhululeka

I-Federal Reserve yamemezela emhlanganweni we-July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ukuthi izinga lenzalo lizoqhubeka likhushulwe ngamaphoyinti angu-75, okukhuphula izinga lezimali zombuso ku-2.25% -2.5%.

Bekuyisigameko esijwayelekile njengoba Izitokwe zase-US zanda futhi isivuno soMgcinimafa kwehla njengoba kufika u-75 bp ngokufanelekile.Kunjalo, kwakuyindaba efanayo emihlanganweni ye-FOMC kaMeyi noJuni.

Kungokokuqala eminyakeni engu-40 edlule ukuthi iFed inyuse amanani ngo-75 bp ilandelana.Kufanelekile ukusho ukuthi i-Fed ibe nolaka ngokwanele, kodwa kungani imakethe ithathe umbhalo othi "Rate-Cut"?
Kube nezizathu ezimbili ezinkulu zokusabela kahle kwemakethe.Okunye ukuthi ukukhushulwa kwezinga bekukulokho obekulindelekile - ukuvumelana kokukhuphuka okungu-75bp bekukhona ngaphambi komhlangano.Esinye isizathu ukuthi uSihlalo we-Fed u-Powell uphawule esithangamini sabezindaba ngemuva komhlangano: "kungenzeka ukuthi kuzofaneleka ukwehlisa ijubane lokunyuka kwezinga".

E-United States, iqembu elingaphakathi kwe-NBER elenza ikholi yokwehla komnotho yiKomidi Lokuqomisana Lomjikelezo Webhizinisi.Kodwa izinqumo zekomiti zivame ukuza nokushoda.(Ngo-2020, ikomidi alizange limemezele ukwehla komnotho kwaze kwaba yilapho umnotho wehla futhi abantu abayizigidi ezingama-22 bebengasebenzi izinyanga.)

I-NBER igxile kakhulu ekuqashweni futhi kubukeka sengathi imakethe yemisebenzi e-US ibomvu.I-White House, ebihlehla embonweni wokuthi kunokuwohloka komnotho, iveze ukuthi umlando wokuntuleka kwemisebenzi usezingeni eliphansi ngo-3.6%, njengoba noMnyango Wezohwebo uthole ukuthi umnotho unciphile ezingxenyeni ezimbili zokugcina.

Noma kunjalo, kunokungabaza okuncane ukuthi umnotho uyahamba kancane, futhi izibikezelo zezimakethe zokukhuphuka kwamanani kulo nyaka seziqalile ukwehla, kuyilapho okulindelekile ekuncishisweni kwamanani kuye kwanda.

I-Wall Street ilindele ukuthi amanani afinyelele ku-3.25% ekupheleni konyaka, okusho ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamazinga amathathu okusele kulo nyaka ngeke kube ngaphezu kuka-90 bp isiyonke.

I-Fed ibukeka sengathi kuzofanele icubungule ukuthi ingakuyeka yini okunye ukukhuphuka kwamanani amakhulu.

Ingabe izinga le-mortgage lizokwehla?

Isivuno seminyaka engu-10 sikaMgcinimafa sehle sisuka ku-2.7% saya ku-2.658%, esiphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-Ephreli, njengoba ukulindela ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo kwaqhubeka kwehla kulo nyaka.

Izinga lokugcina lemali ebolekiwe yeminyaka engama-30 lehle labuyela ku-5.3% (uFreddie Mac)

Njengoba izinto zinjalo, izinga lemali ebolekiwe libonise ukwehla, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi iphuzu eliphakeme kakhulu selihambile.

Imakethe ibikezela kusukela manje, ijubane okungenzeka le-Fed lokukhuphuka kwamanani okulandelayo kuzoba ngale ndlela elandelayo:

Ukunyuka okungu-50bp ngoSepthemba, okuhambisana nokuhamba kancane;

Ukunyuka okungu-25bp ngoNovemba;

Ukunyuka kwe-25bp ngoDisemba bese amanani azokwehla ngonyaka ozayo.

Ngamanye amazwi, i-Fed ingaqala ukunciphisa izinga lenzalo ngoSepthemba, kodwa ijubane lokunyuka okulandelayo lincike kudatha ngoJulayi no-Agasti.

Kodwa uma izibalo zokwehla kwamandla emali zingehli ngokuphawulekayo, ingozi yokuwohloka komnotho ingase iholele i-Fed ukuthi ikhuphule amanani enzalo ukuze ilwe nokwehla kwamandla emali, futhi amanani emali mboleko kulindeleke ukuthi ehle kakhulu.

Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.