Ijubane Lokuncipha Kwango-September Liphindwe Kabili, Imakethe Yazamazama: Amanani Ezindlu Zokuboleka Azokhuphuka!
09/12/2022
Ukunyuka kwezinga kushaye kakhulu, i-Shrinkage iyangabaza
Ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule, i-Federal Reserve yamemezela ukuthi ukuncipha kwe-balance sheet kwakuse-ajenda ngemuva kokuqala umjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga.
Ngokohlelo olushicilelwe yi-Fed, ubukhulu balo mzuliswano wokuncipha buzoba mkhulu kunawo wonke: amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-47.5 ngenyanga izinyanga ezintathu kusukela ngoJuni, okuhlanganisa amabhiliyoni angama-30 ezigidigidi zamabhondi kaMgcinimafa kanye namaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-17.5 ku-MBS (izibambiso ezixhaswe yimpahla ethengwayo).
Imakethe yayisaba kakhulu okungaziwa ngesikhathi sokuncipha kunokwenyuka kwezinga, ngemva kwakho konke, umthelela emakethe wokuthatha indlela enkulu kangaka yokufinyezwa kwe-balance sheet awukwazanga ukubukelwa phansi.
Kodwa manje sekudlule izinyanga ezintathu, futhi uma kuqhathaniswa nokunyuka kwezinga elinolaka lwe-Fed unyaka wonke, ukuphusha ngasikhathi sinye kokuncipha kubonakala kuncane, futhi phambilini bekunemibono eminingi ebithi i-Fed ibingakaqali ukuncipha ishidi lebhalansi. , kodwa esikhundleni salokho wayenwebe ngokuyimfihlo ibhalansi ukuze kuzinziswe ukulingana nezimakethe zezindlu.
Kodwa ingabe ukuqopha ngempela kuwubuqili obuqanjwe yi-Fed?Impela, i-Fed iqhubekela phambili ngokuncipha, ngamandla amancane kakhulu kunawo wonke umuntu obekucabanga ekuqaleni.
Njengoba bekulindelekile yi-Fed, ukudonswa phansi kusukela ngoJuni kuya ku-Agasti kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-142.5, kodwa kuze kube manje kuphela impahla elinganiselwa ku-$ 63.6 billion kuphela eyehlisiwe.
Umthombo wesithombe:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Ngaphansi kwengxenye yohlelo lwangempela lokuncipha - uma kuqhathaniswa nabashaya kakhulu ekukhuphukeni kwezinga lenzalo, i-Fed ibonakala ingenangqondo mayelana nokuncipha.
Ukugwema ukwehla komnotho, ukuhamba kancane kokushwabana ezigabeni zokuqala
Ukuba khona okuphansi komzuliswano wokuqala wokuncipha kusukela ngoJuni kuya ku-Agasti kubangelwa kakhulu ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwangempela kobukhulu bezimpahla ze-Fed bekungaphansi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, futhi imakethe yayithinteke kakhulu kunqubomgomo ye-Fed yokukhuphuka kwezinga.
Eqinisweni, ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala, ukuncishiswa kwezikweletu ze-Fed kuMgcinimafa ngokuyisisekelo kuhambisana nohlelo lwangempela, kodwa ukubamba kwe-MBS akuweli kodwa kukhuphuke, okwaholela emibuzweni eminingi ngokumelene ne-Fed: i-shrinkage eshiwo yashonaphi?
Eqinisweni, imakethe ye-MBS yayisivele ibone ukudayiswa okubanzi ngaphambi kokuba i-Fed yenze isinqumo sayo mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwe-tapering.
Kuze kube manje kulo nyaka, izinga leminyaka engu-30 lokubolekwa kwezindlu selicishe liphindeke kabili lisuka ku-3% wasekuqaleni, osekudale ukwanda okukhulu kwengcindezi kulabo abathenga izindlu, njengoba abanye bebona izindleko zabo zenyanga zenyuka ngaphezu kuka-30%.Imakethe yezindlu ezithengiswayo iphola ngokushesha, futhi ukwehla kokuthengiswa kwezindlu kuyanda inyanga nenyanga.
Amakhredithi esithombe.https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
I-Fed ibambe kuze kufike ku-32% wemakethe ye-MBS engu-$8.4 trillion, futhi njengomtshali-zimali oyedwa omkhulu kunabo bonke emakethe ye-MBS, ukuvula izikhukhula zokuthengiswa kwezikweletu endaweni yemakethe kungase kuqhubekisele phambili amanani emali mboleko futhi ngaleyo ndlela kubangele imakethe yezindlu nezindlu ukuthi phola ngokushesha okukhulu, okuyingozi.
Ngenxa yalokhu, i-Fed yehlise kakhulu ijubane lokuwohloka ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule, cishe ngeso elibheke engcupheni yokuwohloka komnotho.
Imakethe ayikwazi ukukuziba ukusheshisa kokuncipha
Kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Septhemba, umkhawulo esikweletini sase-US kanye nokuncipha kwe-MBS kuzophindwa kabili futhi kukhushulwe ku-$95 billion ngenyanga.
Imibiko eminingi ibikezele ukuthi imakethe izoqala ukuzwa "ukubandayo" kokuqothuka kusukela kule nyanga, isithombe sibukeka njenge-déjà vu, kodwa imakethe ayikwazi ukuqhubeka "ukuziba" ukuphindwa kabili kobukhulu bokuqothuka ngemuva kukaSepthemba.
Ngokocwaningo lwe-Fed, ukuncipha kuzokhuphula isivuno sebhondi yase-US yeminyaka eyi-10 ngamaphuzu ayisisekelo angama-60 phakathi nonyaka, okulingana nengqikithi yokukhuphuka kwezinga lamaphuzu amabili kuya kwamathathu.
Njengoba u-Powell ephinda isimo sakhe "sokukhuphuka kwezinga le-hawkish", nakuba kusenezinga lokukhuphuka kathathu kuphela ngoSepthemba, Novemba noDisemba, kodwa emthelela wokugqagqana kokuncipha kwesivinini esiphindwe kabili kanye nokwenyuka kwezinga, silindele ibhondi yase-US yeminyaka eyi-10. Isivuno kungenzeka sidlulele phezulu okusha okungu-3.5% ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka, amanani emali ebolekiwe ayesaba ukusetshenziswa emzuliswaneni omusha wezinselelo ezinkulu.
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-13-2022