I-GDP ye-“Paper Tiger”: Ingabe iphupho le-Fed lokufika endaweni ethambile liyafezeka?
02/03/2023
Kungani i-GDP yedlula okwakulindelwe?
NgoLwesine olwedlule, idatha yoMnyango Wezohwebo ibonise ukuthi i-GDP yangempela yase-US ikhule ngesilinganiso esingu-2.9% sekota ngaphezulu kwekota ngonyaka odlule, ihamba kancane kunokwenyuka okungu-3.2% kwikota yesithathu kodwa iphakeme kunesibikezelo sangaphambilini semakethe esingu-2.6%.
Ngamanye amazwi: ngenkathi imakethe icabanga ukuthi ukukhula komnotho kuzothatha umonakalo omkhulu ngo-2022 kusukela ekukhuphukeni kwezinga eliphakeme le-Fed, le GDP iyakufakazela: ukukhula komnotho kuhamba kancane, kodwa akuqinile njengoba imakethe yayilindele.
Kodwa ingabe kunjalo ngempela?Ingabe ukukhula komnotho kusenamandla kakhulu?
Ake sibheke ukuthi yini ngempela eyenza ukukhula komnotho.
Umthombo wesithombe: I-Bureau of Economic Analysis
Ngokwesakhiwo, ukutshalwa kwezimali okungaguquki kwehle ngo-1.2% futhi kube ukudonsa okukhulu ekukhuleni komnotho.
Njengoba ukukhuphuka kwezinga le-Fed kukhuphule izindleko zokuboleka, kuyacaca ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali okungaguquki kuzokwehla.
Uhlu lwezimpahla ezizimele, ngakolunye uhlangothi, luyimbangela enkulu yokukhula komnotho ngekota yesine, ekhuphuke ngo-1.46% ukusuka kwikota edlule, okubuyisela ukwehla kwezinga lamakota amathathu adlule.
Lokhu kusho ukuthi izinkampani seziqala ukugcwalisa uhlu lwazo lwezimpahla zonyaka omusha, ngakho ukukhula kulesi sigaba bekunephutha.
Enye iqoqo ledatha idonse ukunaka kwemakethe: ukusetshenziswa kwemali komuntu siqu kukhuphuke ngo-2.1% kuphela kwikota yesine, ngaphansi kakhulu kwalokho okulindelwe yimakethe ngo-2.9%.
Umthombo wesithombe: Bloomberg
Njengomshayeli omkhulu wokukhula komnotho, ukusetshenziswa yisigaba esikhulu kunazo zonke se-US GDP (cishe ama-68%).
Ukwehla kwezindleko zokusetshenziswa komuntu siqu kuphakamisa ukuthi amandla okuthenga abuthakathaka kakhulu ekugcineni nokuthi abathengi abanalo ithemba ngamathemba ezomnotho wesikhathi esizayo futhi abazimisele ukusebenzisa imali yabo siqu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo sasekhaya (ngaphandle kweqoqo lezimpahla, ukusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni kanye nohwebo) sikhule ngo-0.2% kuphela, ukwehla okuphawulekayo kusuka ku-1.1% ngekota yesithathu kanye nokukhula okuncane kakhulu kusukela ngekota yesibili yowezi-2020.
Ukwehla kwesidingo nokusetshenziswa kwekhaya, yizimpawu ezisobala kakhulu zomnotho opholile.
USam Bullard, isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu kwa-Wells Fargo Securities, uyavuma ukuthi lo mbiko we-GDP ungase ube ukwaziswa kokugcina okuhle ngempela, okuqinile kwekota esizokubona okwesikhashana.
“Iphupho le-Fed liyafezeka”?
UPowell usesho kaningi ukuthi ukufika kwezomnotho okuthambile “kungenzeka.”
“Ukufika okuthambile” kusho ukuthi i-Fed igcina izinga eliphezulu lokwehla kwamandla emali ngaphansi kokulawula kuyilapho umnotho ungabonisi zimpawu zokuwohloka komnotho.
Nakuba izinombolo ze-GDP zingcono kunokulindelekile, kufanele kuvunywe: Umnotho uyahamba kancane.
Umuntu angaphinde aphikise ngokuthi umnotho osekuwohlokeni komnotho kunzima ukuwugwema, nokuthi ukwehla kwe-GDP kusho ukuthi ukwehla komnotho okuzayo kungase kufike kamuva noma ngezinga elincane.
Okwesibili, izimpawu zokuwohloka komnotho ziphazamise ukuqashwa.
Isibalo sezicelo zokuqala zemihlomulo yokungasebenzi e-US sehle saya phansi ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalolunye ngoJanuwari, kodwa ngasikhathi sinye inani labantu abaqhubeka nokuthola imihlomulo yokungasebenzi e-US laqala ukukhuphuka futhi.
Lokhu kusho ukuthi bambalwa abantu abasanda kungasebenzi, kodwa abantu abaningi abawutholi umsebenzi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehla okukhulu kokudayiswa kwezitolo kanye nokukhiqizwa kwefekthri ezinyangeni ezimbili ezedlule kuwubufakazi bokuthi umnotho usezingeni eliphansi - umnotho usasendleleni eya ekuwohlokeni komnotho, futhi iphupho "lokufikela kancane" lingase libe nzima. ukuzuza.
Ezinye izazi zezomnotho zikholelwa ukuthi i-US maningi amathuba okuba ibhekane “nokwehla komnotho okuguquguqukayo”: ukwehla okulandelanayo kwemisebenzi yezomnotho ezimbonini ezihlukahlukene, esikhundleni sokwehla kanye kanye.
Ukwehliswa kwezinga lenzalo kulindeleke maduze!
Inkomba yentengo ye-Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), inkomba yokwehla kwamandla emali enentshisekelo enkulu ku-Federal Reserve, ikhuphuke ngo-3.2% engxenyeni yesine kusukela ngonyaka odlule, izinga lokukhula elihamba kancane kusukela ngo-2020.
Phakathi naleso sikhathi, okulindelwe yiNyuvesi yaseMichigan ngonyaka we-1 wokwehla kwamandla emali kwaqhubeka nokwehla ngoJanuwari, kwehle kwafika ku-3.9%.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyinhloko kuye kwathuthuka kakhulu, okunciphisa kakhulu ukucindezela ku-Federal Reserve - ukukhuphuka kwezinga okuqhubekayo kungase kungadingeki futhi ukunakwa okwengeziwe kungakhokhwa ekukhuleni komnotho.
Ngokusekelwe ku-GDP, ngakolunye uhlangothi sibona ukwehla kancane kancane ekukhuleni komnotho, futhi ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yokulindela ukwehla komnotho okuvelayo, i-Fed izonyusa izinga lenzalo ngokulinganisela engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ukuze kuzuzwe okuthambile. kungenzeka ukufikela emnothweni.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lokhu kungase kube ikota yokugcina yokukhula okuqinile kwe-GDP, futhi uma umnotho uwohloka engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, i-Fed ingase iqhubekele ekunciphiseni ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, futhi ukunciphisa izinga kulindeleke. maduze.
Osomnotho baphinde bathi ngenxa yentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe kanye nokuba sobala kwenqubomgomo ye-Fed, umphumela osilele wokukhuphuka kwamanani ungaphansi kunasesikhathini esidlule, okubangela izimakethe zezimali ukuthi zilindele amanani entengo esabela kulokho okulindelwe yimakethe.
Umthombo wesithombe: Freddie Mac
Njengoba i-Fed inciphisa ijubane lokukhuphuka kwamanani, amanani emali mboleko yehle, futhi izindlu ezintsha zenyuka ngenyanga yesithathu ilandelana ngoDisemba, okuphakamisa ukuthi imakethe yezindlu ingase iqale ukusimama.
Uma kulindeleke ukwehliswa kwezinga lenzalo, imakethe izophinde ilindele amanani, futhi amanani emali mboleko azokwehla ngokushesha okukhulu.
Isitatimende: Lesi sihloko sihlelwe ngabakwa-AAA LENDINGS;ezinye zezithombe zithathwe ku-inthanethi, indawo yesayithi ayimelwe futhi ngeke iphinde iphrintwe ngaphandle kwemvume.Kukhona ubungozi emakethe futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kufanele kuqaphe.Lesi sihloko asihlanganisi iseluleko somuntu siqu sokutshala izimali, futhi asicabangi izinjongo ezithile zokutshala izimali, isimo sezezimali noma izidingo zabasebenzisi ngabanye.Abasebenzisi kufanele bacabangele ukuthi noma imiphi imibono, imibono noma iziphetho eziqukethwe lapha zifanele isimo sabo esithile.Tshala imali ngokufanele ngokuzifaka engozini.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-04-2023